Follow The Line Movement: BET Vikings Over Bengals Saturday In Week 15
People are talking recklessly about Cincinnati Bengals backup QB Jake Browning this week. I've heard people say stuff to the effect of "Cincy's offense won't suffer much without Joe Burrow." We'll see about that when the Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) host the Minnesota Vikings (7-6) Saturday in Week 15.
Sure, Browning has looked great in back-to-back victories over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13 and the Indianapolis Colts last week. But, comparing Browning to Burrow after just three games is insane.
Bengals QB Jake Browning celebrate a TD vs. the Indianapolis Colts at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
First of all, people are overlooking Cincy's 16-10 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Browning's 1st start in Week 12. Second, before the Bengals drafted Burrow, they were cursed. More importantly, Minnesota's defense is by far Browning's toughest test yet.
Vikings 1st-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores has done a masterful job. Minnesota's defense is tied for 5th in yards per play allowed (YPP) and 3rd in early-down success rate (EDSR). Flores will give Browning looks he's unfamiliar with.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals odds (PointsBet)
Cincinnati's past three opponents play mostly man coverage. While the Vikings drops back in zone at the 7th-highest rate, according to Pro Football Focus. Plus, Minnesota has the highest blitz rate in the NFL. These exotic blitzes are going to confuse Browning.
Minnesota Vikings pass rusher Danielle Hunter tackles Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
I'm chalking up Browning's past two performances to facing bad defenses and beginner's luck. His 7.3 yards per completion (YAC) is ahead of San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy's NFL-leading 6.9 YAC. Browning's 5.6 intended air yards per pass (IAY/PA) is shorter than Burrow's league-low 5.6 IAY/PA.
Last week, the Colts missed eight tackles vs. the Bengals and the Vikings have the 2nd-fewest missed tackles in the NFL. Cincy RB Joe Mixon had as many targets last week (4) as All-Pro WR Ja'Marr Chase. Bengals running backs had 126 of Browning's 275 passing yards against Indy.
I.e., Browning is "dinking and dunking". With three starts under his belt now, Browning has put enough on tape for Flores to devise a way to stop him. Remember, Flores helped Bill Belichick come up with the defense that shut down the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII.
Also, Cincinnati's defense is bad and overrated. The market says the Bengals have the 4th-best defense in the NFL, per Inpredictable.com. Yet, Cincy's defense is 31st in YPP and dead-last in EDSR. Frankly, the Bengals ranking 4th in defense anywhere has to be a typo.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS DEFENSE REDEEMS MIND-NUMBINGLY BORING GAME WITH INCREDIBLE KEG STAND CELEBRATION
Furthermore, why can't Vikings backup QB Nick Mullens have success vs. the Bengals? He's a better pocket passer than Minnesota QB Josh Dobbs and WR Justin Jefferson is telling reporters he'll play in Week 15.
Raiders defensive lineman Adam Butler tries to block a throw by Minnesota Vikings QB Nick Mullens at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Plus, Mullens has a similar player profile as Vikings QB Kirk Cousins and familiarity in this system. This is Mullens' 2nd season in Minnesota. The only reason the Vikings traded for Dobbs is because Mullens was on the IR.
Finally, there are sharp bettors taking the points with Minnesota. That's the only way to explain the line movement. Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on Cincy as of Wednesday night. Yet, the Vikings opened as +5 underdogs and are down to +3. Apparently, sportsbooks want more pro-Bengals action.