Flagg Should Get Another Showcase In This One

Alabama vs. Duke, 8:49 ET

With just a few games remaining in the College Basketball season, I'm making it a goal to have something for each of them. I want to find some angle, some sort of play, some prop, something to try and cash in a bit more before the end of the year. I won't force it, though. It has been a good season overall, even with a few days where I stumble. I've only done two player props this year but might have a third one here as we've reached the Elite Eight. We are putting a play on this game between Alabama and Duke.

If you read my article from earlier in the week, you'll know that I was dead wrong about Alabama's game against BYU. I thought BYU might keep it close, I thought that the total was too high, and guess what - I didn't even come close. The total was insane and they still flew over it. Alabama ended up scoring 113 points and allowed 88. That's a ton of points in 40 minutes. Mostly because Alabama set the record for most threes made in a tournament game. Mark Sears alone had 34. He's a baller. I'm not sure if this is interesting to anyone else, but Alabama has scored 283 points in three games in the tournament now. Their defense still isn't great, but they've won each game by at least nine points, so they haven't really had to sweat all that much either. There were some questions about them coming into the tournament - well at least their SEC Tournament as they had lost four of the previous seven games. In the tournament they took down Kentucky with ease before they were embarrassed by Florida. Now they have to take on Duke and see if they can keep that hot shooting going.

Duke is a different challenge for Alabama than BYU. BYU was lost all game on defense, they didn't know who to go after and where the ball was, the rotations were awful, and once the guys for the Crimson Tide got into a rhythm, they couldn't get out of it. With Duke, they switch everything, every time. There aren't going to be mismatches or lost players. That doesn't mean Alabama can't score on them. In fact if you watch the way that Alabama plays they inbound the ball immediately looking to push the tempo. BYU played into that and was pushing the ball as well. Duke will not do that. They are too smart and too good in the half court to play at Alabama's speed. This team also presents a matchup nightmare for Alabama. Sears is 6'1", he can be exploited on defense and I expect the Blue Devils to do it often. Chris Youngblood is only 6'4". Tyrese Proctor, Kon Knueppel, and Cooper Flagg are all at least 6'6". They will have an advantage in height at virtually every position. 

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Alabama won't be shooting 49% from deep again. They only took 15 2-point shots. Height doesn't really matter when you shoot that well from that far away. I just can't imagine Alabama hitting that well again. Duke isn't perfect by any means, but they will have a ton of mismatches on offense. I also think they are a better defensive team. If you expect the total to go over again, I don't blame you. Duke just put up 100 points themselves. I just don't see where there is an edge for Alabama in this one. I'd love to back Duke, but it could be close. Instead, in a game with a high tempo and expected double teams on him. Flagg should easily clear the 31+ points and assists mark listed on DraftKings. Bet that number. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024