Fish Fry: Marlins Will Beat Phillies In Game 1 Of NL Wild Card Series
Two of the three NL Wild Card seeds representing the NL East duke it out in the start of the MLB postseason. The 5-seed Miami Marlins head to Citizens Bank Park for Game 1 to face the 4-seed Philadelphia Phillies as the nightcap Tuesday.
Miami won the season series 7-6 but Philly out-scored the Marlins 64-55 in those meetings. Phillies ace RHP Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA) takes the mound Tuesday. Miami counters with lefty Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA) for Game 1.
Phillies righty Zack Wheeler delivers a pitch vs. the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
The Phillies are 1-2 vs. the Marlins in Wheeler starts this season. However, Wheeler has three no-decisions in those games with 6 ERs on 18.0 IP with a 17/4 K/BB rate.
While the Marlins have won both games Luzardo has started vs. Philadelphia. Luzardo has 5 ERs allowed in 12.1 IP with a 14/2 K/BB rate in those two Marlins-Phillies meetings.
Marlins at Phillies Game 1 odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the Marlins at Phillies Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series from PointsBet.
Momentum is a big thing in MLB come October. Just think back to last season. Philadelphia fired former manager Joe Girardi in the middle of the year because the team was 22-29.
Under current manager Rob Thompson, the Phillies finished 65-46 in 2022 and made it to the World Series as a wild-card team. However, this season, the Marlins are the hotter team entering the playoffs.
Miami has the 3rd-best return on investment (ROI) in MLB since the start of September at +23.3%. The Marlins are 17-10 straight up (SU) over that span whereas the Phillies are 16-12 SU with a +2.2% ROI.
Also, this isn't the sharpest form of MLB handicapping but Luzardo's advanced pitching numbers vs. Philly's lineup is better than Wheeler vs. Miami. The essence of pitching is striking out and walking batters.
Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo pitches at loanDepot Park in Miami. (Alie Skowronski/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
With that in mind, according to Statcast, Luzardo's K% and BB% in 83 plate apperances (PA) facing active Phillies hitters are better than Wheeler's in 153 PA vs. current Marlins. Luzardo's expected slash line is .232/.290/.372 in those PA and Wheeler has a .266/.313/.395 expected slash line.
Furthermore, Miami's lineup has a higher batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wRC+ since the beginning of last month, according to FanGraphs.
Finally, sharp bettors are buying stock in the Marlins Tuesday. Miami's Game 1 moneyline opened at around +140 and is down to +125 despite roughly 80% of the action being on Philadelphia, according to Pregame.com.
My prediction: Marlins 6, Phillies 3