First-Round Leader Looks For U.S. Open 2023: Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth

I reserve First Round Leader (FRL) for the majors because I want more action than my bankroll constraints typically allow. With that in mind, I got some "End of Round 1 Leader" looks in this week's U.S. Open 2023.

Just to clarify, these FRL wagers will be smaller than my usual "horses for the course" offerings. In fact, if the NBA Finals were still going on I'd probably just use this money on those games. But, I'm willing to divide a half-unit (u) among these ...

U.S. Open 1st Round Leader Bets

Scottie Scheffler (+1800)

Scheffler is No. 1 in my 2023 U.S. Open power rankings built using the tools of FantasyNational.com. And it's by a wide margin. Scheffler is 1st in my key stat model over the last 24 and 36 rounds.

He 1st in total Strokes Gained (SG) in the last six events. Frankly, Scheffler's numbers are stupid and Tiger Woods-esque, which is not something I say lightly.

Here's a look at how Scottie has played this calendar year: 7th at the Sentry, 11th at the AmEx, 1st at the Phoenix Open, 12th at the Genesis, 4th at the API, 1st at THE PLAYERS, 10th at the Masters, 11th at the RBC Heritage, 5th at the Byron Nelson, 2nd at the PGA Championship, 3rd at the Charles Schwab, and 3rd at the Memorial.

This is a corny thing to say but Scheffler is pretty much a lock to finish inside the top-10 at the 2023 U.S. Open. That said, Scheffler at 6-to-1 for the full tournament is too rich for my blood.

In order to back Scheffler this week, I'd have to thin my betting card to just one or two other golfers for bankroll responsibility. Also, Scheffler's putting is the reason why he hasn't won his last two starts.

Bankroll constraints and Scheffler's poor putting are enough to keep him off his outright odds. But, it would be irresponsible to not have Scheffler on my betting card. Let's ...

BET 0.2u on Scottie Scheffler to be "End of Round 1 Leader" (+1800) at DraftKings

Jordan Spieth (+3500)

A lot of people are saying "golfers need creativity to navigate the LACC" and Spieth is the most creative golfer in the game. Albeit it's more out of necessity than planned creativity.

Spieth can be a little erratic off-the-tee (OTT) but has a knack for recovering to some how hit the green in regulation. I say this because as a way to explain why I don't have an outright bet on Spieth.

But, Spieth is playing great lately and obviously has true win equity as the 2015 U.S. Open champion. Spieth will probably put together two or three good rounds but won't be consistent enough to win.

He has six T6 or better finishes in his last 11 starts including a T6 at the Phoenix Open and T4 at the Masters, both of which are at comp courses to the LACC.

BET: 0.1u on Jordan Spieth to be "End of Round 1 Leader" (+3500) at DraftKings

Cameron Young (+5000)

This is someone I'd actually add to my U.S. Open full-tournament betting card on top of betting his FRL. Young has been awful lately and I've heard literally no one give him out to win the 2023 U.S. Open.

Young has finished T51 or worse in six of his last seven starts including two missed cuts at the Memorial and PGA Championship. However, if "creativity" is needed to win this event then I want some exposure on Young.

He crushes the ball OTT and has the ball striking to conceptualize approach (APP) shots most humans cannot. Over the last 36 rounds, Young is SG: OTT, 16th in approach shots from 175-200 yards out and 18th in SG: Ball striking.

The consensus about Young's chances at the U.S. Open is "this course doesn't fit his game". But, if Young's irons are dialed in, his game is all-world. Young was 2nd at the 2022 Open Championship at another course that didn't "fit his skill-set".

Plus, Young finished 60th at the 2022 Memorial and missed cuts at the 2022 U.S. Open and Genesis Scottish Open entering the Open Championship. Then Young dominated the Old Course at St Andrews.

While LACC is much different than St Andrews, the North Course at the LACC is a big, open space similar to the Old Course at St Andrews. Young will at least have the opportunity to ball strike his way into and out of positions other golfers cannot.

BET: 0.1u on Cameron Young to be "End of Round 1 Leader" (+5000), 0.25u on winning the U.S. Open (+5000) and 0.25u on Top-20 (+190) at DraftKings

Patrick Rodgers (+13000)

The word on the street is Rodgers has the most experience at the LACC of anyone in the 2023 U.S. Open field. If anything, Rodgers' experience gives him an edge early at the U.S. Open.

While Rodgers hasn't been a threat in any recent tournaments, he's played well. He's only missed one cut over his last seven starts. Rodgers was 5th at the Valero, 19th at the RBC Heritage, 10th at the Mexico Open, 29th at the PGA Championship, and 30th at the Memorial.

Over his last 10 events, Rodgers is picking up strokes in the five most important golf metrics: OTT, Tee-to-Green, APP, Around-the-Green and Putting.

Patrick Rodgers hits a tee shot on the fifth hole during the final round of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

At Stanford University, Rodgers won the Ben Hogan Award and was the 1st-ranked player in the World Amateur Golf Rankings for four months in 2014. So he's got game.

Finally, Rodgers has made the cut in all four of his career U.S. Open starts. Is Rodgers going to win golf's 3rd major? No. Could Rodgers put together a couple of good rounds? Yes.

BET: 0.1u on Patrick Rodgers to be "End of Round 1 Leader" (+13000) at DraftKings

Odds for Patrick Rodgers to be the End of Round 1 Leader at the 2023 U.S. Open from DraftKings.

More 2023 U.S. Open Betting Coverage

HOT LINKS: 2023 U.S. OPEN BETTING PREVIEW FEATURING DAN ZAKSHESKE

2023 U.S. OPEN BETTING ODDS, COURSE PREVIEW, POWER RANKINGS: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, JON RAHM LEAD THE WAY

FOUR HORSEMEN FOR THE 2023 U.S. OPEN: CANTLAY, MORIKAWA, HIDEKI AND TOM KIM

U.S. OPEN 2023 HEAD-TO-HEADS, 3-BALL BETS: HATTON VS. RORY, HOVLAND-HOMA-SMITH

Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.