First five Look In Padres Vs. Diamondbacks

Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

One of the hardest things to do as a sports bettor is to continuously push the envelope and put out plays when you’re struggling. There are times you want to walk away, you think it is a pointless hobby, etc. And, if you are really struggling to control your betting, walking away or getting help is certainly encouraged. However, when things are going good, you can’t wait for games to be played. You’re looking for the next angle or the next prop – whatever – that can be dangerous too because you start to over extend yourself. I’ll tell you this, right now, and for basically all of April, I have been locked in. I’m not looking to change anything right now and will go for more cash as the Padres take on the Diamondbacks. 

If you’ve read my work over the past year, you’ll know I’ve been very hard on the Padres. I think the franchise has underperformed and I personally am frustrated by it (they haven’t really cost me money or anything) because I like when teams actually try to put a winning product on the field. For whatever reason, this hasn’t worked out for the Padres. They are just average despite having some of the better names in their lineup. It looked like they were trying to field a team of shortstops, which really isn’t a bad strategy. They’ve done well with pitching, finding reasonable salaried guys, and even getting the most out of others. For whatever reason it has resulted in them being competitive, but not competitive enough. I certainly understand not being able to overthrow the Dodgers, but they should be finishing in second each year. This just hasn’t been the case. One of their additions they made this season to try and get on the winning side was to add Dylan Cease via trade. Cease has come over and looked more like the Cy Young candidate he was. He’s had six starts this season and has allowed just 11 runs in 35.2 innings. Five of those runs came in his last start, so he’s been even better than you might think. His last start interrupted a run of four consecutive quality starts where he allowed two or fewer runs in each game. Diamondback hitters are just 7-for-33 against Cease with only one extra-base hit. 

Apr 21, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA;  Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Slade Cecconi (43) throws against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The Diamondbacks, coming off of their World Series appearance, were not going to fly under the radar this season. Last year it was a bit of a surprise to many that they were in the position that they were in. This year, teams know they are good. They know they have two stud pitchers and a few other younger guys that can throw. They know that Corbin Carroll is a stud and the team can hit for average and power. Perhaps this is just a blip, but the Diamondbacks aren’t looking like the well-crafted team from last season. It is still early, and a lot can happen, but their numbers are pretty similar to the Padres and that likely won’t result in anything other than an average finish. Tonight, they send out Slade Cecconi in hopes of stopping the Padres. Cecconi is making his third start of the season. In the first two, he allowed just three earned runs total over 12 innings. What I like the most is he has allowed a total of five hits and one walk, while striking out 11 hitters. He’s done all of this on the road, this will be his first home start. We did see him last year for a little bit and he faced the Padres in 1.2 innings worth of work, allowing one hit but no earned runs. 

This is a bit of a toss up for a game, but I lean toward the Padres mainly due to the more established pitcher on the mound. However, I think the smart play here is to take the under. Cease has been very good and looks like he has regained whatever he lost from last season. Cecconi is a bit unknown to this point, but from what I’ve seen, he is fairly reliable even going back to last season. I’ll back the under through five (4.5, +105) in this one, but may sprinkle the Padres to win. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024