Firing Out Of A Hole: 3 NBA Games Worth Betting Wednesday

Initially, I was butt-hurt about the NBA using Election Day as a load management opportunity and scheduling zero games. Then I remembered that I'm sucking in the NBA so far this season and perhaps a night off isn't the worst idea.

Entering Wednesday, my NBA record is 15-16 and my bankroll is -4.13 units (u). Not ideal. That said, there is plenty of time to get it back and I'm starting with these ...

NBA Wednesday Best Bets

Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers (-6), 7 p.m. ET tip-off

The last time I bet the Pacers they got truck-sticked 155-104 by the Boston Celtics. Granted, I gambled on the health of Indiana PG Tyrese Haliburton who was "questionable" for that game and didn't play.

I'm willing to let bygones be bygones and run it back with the Pacers, especially with Haliburton off the injury report. Indiana is -6.5 favorites, which is suspiciously high. However, the total is 243.5 as of Tuesday night and both teams chuck 3s.

Yet, the Pacers are better from behind the arc. Indiana is making 5.5 more 3-pointers per game than its opponent and Utah is +0.9 in 3-pointers made per game. The Pacers lead the league in both offensive and defensive wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr).

Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton backs down Utah Jazz SG Collin Sexton at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Whereas the Jazz are 20th in offensive wide-open 3PAr and 27th defensively. "Wide-open" means there's at least six feet worth of distance between the 3-point shooter and the nearest defender.

Furthermore, Indiana's five leaders in 3-point attempts per game are all shooting at least 41.4% from 3-point land. While only one Utah 3-point shooter (PF Lauri Markkanen) is averaging better than 37% from deep.

Finally, the Jazz have been horrible on the road so far this season. They are 0-4 straight up (SU) with a -18.3 SU margin and 1-3 against the spread (ATS). According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Utah is 29th in defensive rating in away games.

My prediction: Pacers 128, Jazz 116

Bet slip from PointsBet for Pacers-Jazz in NBA Wednesday.

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Miami Heat (-130) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET tip-off

The Grizzlies allow the 3rd-highest wide-open 3PAr in the NBA with the 2nd-worst defensive 3-point percentage. The Heat are 9th in 3-point shooting percentage and 3rd in wide-open 3-point shooting.

Miami has a strength-on-weakness edge over Memphis in ball security. Per CTG, the Heat are 3rd in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and the Grizzlies are 21st in offensive TOV%. Plus, Memphis is 25th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

Heat big Bam Adebayo is a better version of Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. Adebayo is a better shooter, distributor, and rebounder. Even though Jackson is the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Bam is a better defensive player.

Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo drives the paint against Memphis Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. and SG Desmond Bane at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, Jackson commits stupid fouls and Adebayo is one of the best bigs in the NBA at drawing fouls. According to CTG, Bam is in the 100% of bigs in non-shooting fouls drawn and the 78% in shooting fouls drawn.

Finally, Miami is an elite defensive team perennially and Memphis has the 2nd-worst offensive efficiency in the NBA, per CTG. Without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies don't have anyone that can create looks and there's too much Memphis PG Marcus Smart in this offense.

My prediction: Heat 111, Grizzlies 106

Bet slip from PointsBet for Heat-Grizzlies in NBA Wednesday.

Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors (+5), 8:30 p.m. ET

You have to defend the 3-point shot if you want to beat the Mavericks. They are leading the NBA in 3PAr and are 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage. Well, Toronto is 2nd in defensive 3-point shooting and allows the 6th-fewest 3-point attempts per game.

The Mavs run the 7th-highest rate of half-court plays per game, per CTG. While the Raptors are 3rd in defensive rating vs. half-court plays. Dallas runs a lot of iso-sets through Luka Doncic. Toronto has three long, athletic forwards to sic on Luka: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes).

Raptors SF OG Anunoby blocks a shot by Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)

Moreover, the Raptors get out in transition at the 9th-highest rate in the NBA, according to CTG, and ranks 2nd in fastbreak points added per 100 possessions. The Mavericks on the other hand are 25th in transition defensive efficiency.

Lastly, Toronto seems to be the sharp play here. While writing this, the Raptors went from +5.5 to +5 underdogs and they opened at +6. This is despite more than 70% of the action being on the Mavericks as of Wednesday morning, per Pregame.com.

My prediction: Raptors 113, Mavericks 110

Bet slip from PointsBet for Raptors-Mavericks in NBA Wednesday.