Firing At Pins: The Sentry 2024 Predictions And Best Bets
Welcome back, golf gamblers. The PGA Tour 2024 season tees off Thursday, January 4th with The Sentry 2024 at Kapalua Resort's Plantation Course in Maui, Hawaii.
Golf returns at the perfect time. The NFL regular season is winding down. "Load management" will pick up in the NBA and only the College Football Playoff remains in bowl season.
The 2024 Sentry has been upgraded to a "Signature Event." There is no cut in the Sentry and a cool $20 million prize pool. Usually, the Sentry is the "Tournament of Champions" featuring the winners of the prior year's events.
Jon Rahm celebrates winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions 2023 at The Plantation Course in Maui, Hawaii. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
This season, the Sentry's field is 59 golfers with winners from 2023 and the top-50 in the FedExCup standings. The past two Sentry champions, Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith, aren't in the field since both play for the LIV Tour now.
A NEW PGA TOUR SEASON IS HERE, WAY TOO EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR 2024, AND A NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTION FOR OUR READERS
The Plantation Course is a great tune-up for golfers returning from a holiday break. It's is a Par-73 track that measures 7,596 yards. There are three Par 3s, four Par 5s, and 11 Par 4s and Bermuda grass greens.
Since Kapalua is a resort, this is one of the easiest courses on Tour. The average winning score of the past five Sentry champions is 25-under par. Also, the distance is misleading. The elevation changes and fairway rollouts give short hitters a chance at Kapalua.
Before doling out my picks, let's 1st discuss my golf gambling strategy. I'll be building my models with the tools from BetTheNumberGolf.com courtesy of my friends from Tour Junkies. Unless otherwise noted, all the stats used will be from that website.
My plan is to profit 20 units (u) for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10 or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
The Sentry 2024 Best Bets
Xander Schauffele
Xander has the 6th-best odds to win the Sentry but he ranks 3rd on my 75-round model. Schauffele is 4th in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach and Par 4 scoring in this field over the last 75 rounds. He is 5th in both Par 5 scoring and total SG at comp courses as well.
More importantly, Schauffele won the Sentry in 2019, tied for 2nd in 2020, and tied for 5th in 2021. Xander is the TOUR Championship 2023 runner up, which is another no-cut event, so the following trend applies to him.
Finally, because Kapalua is one of the easiest courses on Tour, the Sentry typically turns into a putting contest. Well, Schauffele was 5th in SG: Putting last season on the PGA Tour. Over the last 20 rounds, Xander ranks 5th in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda grass greens.
1st thoroughbred for the Sentry 2024: Xander Schauffele
Joohyung 'Tom' Kim
I’m predicting a breakout year on Tour for Tom Kim. By “breakout” I mean either winning a major or being in the final group on Sunday. Kim is already a 3-time winner in just one full season on the PGA Tour. He finished T16 or better in three of the four majors last season.
Tom was T16 at the 2023 Masters, T8 at the U.S. Open, and T2 at the Open Championship. Augusta and the Los Angeles Country Club (course of the 2023 U.S. Open) are similar to Kapalua. All three have wide fairways with uneven lies and elevation changes.
Tom Kim his a tee shot at the 18th hole in the Sentry Tournament of Champions 2023 at Kapalua Golf Club in Lahaina, Hawaii. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Sentry is one of the most predictive courses on Tour. Last season, Kim finished T5 in his 1st ever Sentry despite being -0.27 in SG: Putting. With experience under his belt, Tom will have a better handle of the undulating fairways and greens.
Lastly, Kim is one of the most precise ball strikers in the world and 2nd in SG: Putting on Bermuda grass over the last 20 rounds. Tom is going to set himself up with plenty of birdie or better chances and he'll putt better this year at Kapalua.
2nd thoroughbred for the Sentry 2024: Tom Kim
Wyndham Clark
Clark won two signature events on Tour last season: The Wells Fargo Championship and U.S. Open. We already discussed how LACC is similar to the Plantation Course. Hence Clark's game is perfect for this venue.
Kapalua is a bomber’s paradise and Clark is one of the longest golfers off-the-tee (OTT). Clark has the fastest ball speed in the Sentry field. His distance-plus is a major reason for ranking 4th in this field in Par 5 scoring over the last 75 rounds.
Clark can get on the green in two strokes and set up an eagle putt. The Sentry is a “birdie fest” so golfers must take advantage of the Par 5s. Clark is 9th in this field for birdie or better average over the past 75 rounds.
Wyndham Clark he lags his putt on the 18th green en route to winning the 2023 U.S. Open at The Los Angeles Country Club. (Keyur Khamar/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)
Surprisingly, Clark has a soft touch around-the-green (ARG) for a bomber. He’s 6th in SG: ARG in this field over the last 75 rounds. Clark was +1.22 SG: ARG at the 2023 U.S. Open. While the Plantation Course has huge greens, Clark’s power will set him up with a bunch of ARG-like shots.
My biggest concern with betting on Clark at Kapalua is he is a debutant in the Sentry. As discussed above, experience is a huge advantage at the Plantation Course. However, Clark’s skill set at this price makes him a great bet given my remaining budget.