Masters 2024 'Top Player' Bets For Finishing Positions
Forget the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs, The Masters 2024 is my favorite sports betting event of the year. Aside from futures, most of the action for those other sports comes from picking coin-flips: What team will win this game and by how many points? However, in golf betting, you don't have to pick the winner to make money.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark's The Masters 2024 Betting Bonanza ft. Mark Harris
I'm adding six finishing positions and "top player" bets to my Masters 2024 card, which are separate from my picks to win the green jacket. Because of "dead heat" rules, it's tricky to make placement bets in golf. But, for the 2024 Masters, BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbooks are paying out ties for top-5, -10, and -20 finishing position wagers. With that in mind, let's discuss other ways to make money at Augusta National Golf Club this week.
The Masters 2024 Placement and ‘Top Player’ Bets
The odds chosen are the best available as of Wednesday, April 10th at 11 a.m. ET.
Shane Lowry: Top-20
There's a trend that Betsperts golf analyst Ron Klos uncovered that shows the last 12 winners of the Masters have gained at least 18 strokes tee-to-green (T2G) in their four events before the Masters. Lowry checks the box and is +23.8 Strokes Gained (SG): T2G in his last four starts.
The Irishman finished T60 at the WM Phoenix Open, T4 at the Cognizant Classic, T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T19 at THE PLAYERS Championship over that span. This season on TOUR, Lowry is 5th in SG: T2G and 3rd in SG: Approach (APP).
Shane Lowry waves to the crowd after making his putt on No. 18 Sunday of the 2022 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. (Adam Cairns-Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY Sports)
Not only is Lowry in great form but he plays well in majors and finished T16 at the Masters 2023 and T3 two years ago. Lowry is the 2019 Champion Golfer of the Year (winner of The Open Championship). He has several top-20 finishes in majors, including T20 at the U.S. Open and T12 at the PGA Championship last season.
Bet 0.75u on Shane Lowry to Top-20 (+130), including ties, at DraftKings to profit 0.98u
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Corey Conners: Top-20
The Canadian falls into the same T2G trend that Lowry does. Conners is +23.3 SG: T2G over his last four starts, which includes a T41 at the Cognizant, T18 at the Arnold Palmer, T13 at THE PLAYERS, and T25 at the Valero Texas Open. He's being held back by the flat-stick and has lost strokes on the greens in three of his last four starts.
Corey Conners plays a shot on the 2nd hole during the 2nd round of The Masters 2023. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Network)
Conners struggles in the majors but has played well in The Masters. Granted, he missed the cut at Augusta last season. However, Conners finished T10 at The Masters in 2020, T8 in 2021, and T6 in 2022. Finally, Corey is 5th in my 36-round model at Fantasy National. He is 2nd in SG: APP, 1st in APP shots from 200+ yards, and 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) over that span.
Bet 0.75u on Corey Conners to Top-20 (+170) at BetMGM to profit 1.28u
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Hideki Matsuyama: Top-10
The 2021 green jacket winner is the biggest favorite on my 2024 Masters betting card. Matsuyama is 3rd in the FedExCup standings coming into Augusta behind World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark. Hideki is dialed in with the irons, knows his way around Augusta, and is the best around-the-green (ARG) player on TOUR.
Furthermore, Matsuyama plays well in the majors. He hasn't missed a cut at a major since the 2019 Open Championship. Hideki has picked up strokes ARG in 12 of his last 13 major starts and gained strokes with his irons in 11 of his last 12 majors, including six straight.
Lastly, the Masters 2024 field is only 88 golfers deep with the top-50 and ties making the cut. Several of these guys are past Masters champions and amateurs, none of whom have any chance of winning. In reality, Matsuyama is one of 50 golfers who can win a green jacket this week and one of 15 worth betting on.
Bet 0.6u on Hideki Matsuyama to Top-10 (+190), including ties, at DraftKings to profit 1.14u
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Sungjae Im: Top-20
I'm throwing a dart here because Sungjae has been awful this season. He's missed the cut three times and Im's best finishes are T5 at the Sentry 2024 and T18 at the Arnold Palmer. Yet, I've bet Sungjae to finish in the top-20 at Augusta in back-to-back seasons and he's cashed those tickets. Im was T16 at last year's Masters and T8 two years ago. The South Korean finished T2 as a debutant in the 2020 Masters.
Sungjae Im tees off from the 11th tee box during a practice round for The Masters 2022 at Augusta National Golf Club. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)
Despite his recent slump, Sungjae has the game to win a major. In his career, Im is picking up strokes in the main golf stats such as APP, OTT, T2G, Around-the-Green (ARG), and Putting, per Fantasy National. Major tournaments test a golfer's whole skill set and Im is good throughout the bag. Lastly, he's only 26 years old and has two career wins on the PGA TOUR.
Bet 0.5u on Sungjae Im to Top-20 (+240) at BetMGM to profit 1.2u
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Wyndham Clark: Top Debutant
The wrong golfer is the favorite in this market. PGA TOUR rookie phenom Ludvig Åberg (+300) is the favorite to be the Top Debutant at BetMGM when it should be Clark. It's rare for a major champion to be making his Masters debut. But, that's the case for Clark who won the 2023 U.S. Open, which is played at a crossover course to Augusta.
Furthermore, Clark is 2nd in the FedExCup standings behind Scottie Scheffler. Clark won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, a "signature event" on the PGA TOUR. He finished 2nd to Scheffler in back-to-back tournaments at the Arnold Palmer and PLAYERS.
Åberg and Clark are both bombers, but Wyndham ranks higher in SG: ARG and Putting this season. Finally, you must score on these Par 5s to contend at Augusta. Clark is 3rd in Par 5 scoring and Åberg is 37th.
Bet 0.4u on Wyndham Clark to be Top Debutant (+333) at BetMGM to profit 1.33u
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Cameron Smith: Top LIV Golfer
FanDuel gives Smith the 6th-best odds to be the highest-finishing LIV golfer at the Masters behind reigning champion Jon Rahm (+230), Brooks Koepka (+400), Joaquin Niemann (+550), Bryson DeChambeau (+700), and Dustin Johnson (+800). I understand why Rahm, DJ, and Brooks have better odds than Smith, but not Niemann and DeChambeau.
Rahm and DJ have green jackets and Brooks is a five-time major champion. Niemann has never won a major and Bryson's short-game hasn't been good enough for him to contend at Augusta. DeChambeau has missed back-to-back cuts in the Masters and Niemann's best finish at Augusta was a T16 last year. Smith has made the cut in all seven Masters appearances with a T5 in 2018, T2 in 2020, T10 in 2021, and a T3 in 2022.
Cameron Smith chips onto the 12th green during the final round of the Masters 2022 at Augusta. (Andrew Davis Tucker-Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY Sports)
My favorite thing about having Smith on my Masters 2024 betting card is his lights-out putting. The 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year is as good of a putter as any golfer is at any other skill. I.e. Smith is as good with his putter as Rory McIlroy is with his driver, Scheffler with his irons, and Matsuyama ARG.
Essentially, the other LIV golfers in this market are properly rated whereas Smith is underrated. In 2022, he won The Open Championship, THE PLAYERS Championship, and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The Aussie finished in the top 10 of the 2023 U.S. Open and PGA Championship. Smith is a big-game hunter and should be closer to 5-to-1 to be the best LIV golfer at the 2024 Masters.
Bet 0.25u on Cameron Smith to be the Top LIV Golfer (+900) at FanDuel to profit 2.25u
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Other Masters 2024 Content
The Masters 2024 Outright Bets, One-And-Done Pick: Hideki, Justin Thomas
Rory McIlroy Holds Incredibly Short Masters Press Conference In What Seems To Be Another Preparation Shakeup
Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns Would Withdraw From Masters If Their Very Pregnant Wives Go Into Labor
Jon Rahm Loses It As Tyrrell Hatton Explains His Caddie Fell Over At Dinner Forcing Him Out Of The Masters
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.