Final Four Betting: Grab Miami With The Points Over UConn In NCAA Tournament Semifinal

The second 2023 Final Four matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and UConn Huskies tips off 8:49 p.m. ET, Saturday, April 1st at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. UConn won the West Region as a 4-seed and 5-seed Miami took down the Midwest Regional.

This isn't as big of a long-shot matchup as the first NCAA Tournament semifinal. Miami is 2023 ACC regular-season champions and head coach Jim Larrañaga already did the Cinderella-thing with George Mason's 2016 Final Four run.

Miami’s route to the Final Four:

The Huskies opened their season on a 14-0 start, ranking as high as No. 2 in the AP Poll before dropping seven games in Big East play. This is UConn coach Dan Hurley's first Final Four appearance but the Huskies are going for a fifth national title.

UConn's path to the Final Four:

OutKick Bets Podcast: Final Four 2023 Betting Bonanza Ft Grayson Weir

Miami vs. UConn Final Four Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Miami-UConn betting odds for the 2023 Final Four from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, March 31st.

Too big of a deal is being made out of UConn's +22.5 point-per-game and +17.5 against-the-spread (ATS) margins in the NCAA Tournament. Don't get me wrong, it's impressive.

However, Gonzaga can't play defense and UConn had a few strength-on-weakness edges in that matchup. Arkansas is small and can't shoot. Saint Mary's was overrated the whole season. Iona is a MAAC team.

Gonzaga big Drew Timme defends UConn big Adama Sanogo during the Elite Eight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Miami went through Big XII champion, Texas, which is the toughest conference in college hoops. And Houston who was ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll for seven weeks during the regular season.

DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting via VSIN that Connecticut is getting more than 60% of the action as of Friday morning. I expect that number to get bigger before tip-off because of UConn's impressive tourney resume.

The U is stacked with shooters and gets better looks

Both are elite shooting teams: Miami is 14th in true shooting rate and UConn is 31st. Per Haslametrics.com, the U is 50th in average field-goal proximity to the basket and UConn ranks 248th defensively and 252nd offensively in that metric.

Furthermore, the Huskies rely on 3-pointers more so than the Hurricanes. Per Ken Pom, 34.8% of Connecticut's points come from behind the arc whereas just 28.4% of Miami's points are from 3.

Miami F Norchad Omier goes up for a layup vs. Houston in the Sweet 16 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. (Andrew Hancock/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

Miami-UConn is being played in a football stadium and the different sight lines could be a problem for both teams' outside shooting. Also, the Hurricanes should win the free-throw battle Saturday.

Connecticut ranks 319th nationally out of 363 programs in defensive free-throw attempt rate (FTr), per Ken Pom, and Miami is 15th in free-throw percentage. The U is 18th in defensive FTr and the Huskies are 210th offensively.

Finally, the Hurricanes just find ways to hang around in games. Four of Miami's seven losses this season are by 1 or 2 points and the U is 9-2 ATS as an underdog with a +6.1 ATS margin.

BET: Hurricanes +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Miami Hurricanes' odds vs. the UConn Huskies in the Final Four from DraftKings Sportsbook.