Continuing A Cursed PGA Tour Season With 'Best Bets' For The FedEx St. Jude Championship 2024
We are entering the final stretch of the 2024 PGA TOUR season. The FedExCup playoffs begin this week at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee with the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2024. It'll be swampa** weather in Memphis this week with forecasted temperatures in the mid-90s that feel like 100+ degrees.
Only the top 70 golfers from the FedExCup standings make the playoffs. That leaves out 2023 St. Jude champion, Lucas Glover, who finished 77th in the FedExCup standings. The top 50 make it to next week's BMW Championship in Castle Rock, Colorado, followed by the top 30 for the TOUR Championship.
The end of the 2024 PGA TOUR season cannot come any sooner. My cursed year continued at last week's regular-season finale, the Wyndham Championship, where I was -1.02 units (u). I would've won money at the Wyndham, but Keegan Bradley bogeyed the 72nd hole and fell outside the top 20. Now, I'm -57.83u on TOUR in 2024, and I'm playing for pride.
FedEx St. Jude Championship 2024 Best Bets
Outright Picks
Ludvig Åberg (+2200)
The Swede got his full-time PGA TOUR status for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open by finishing 1st at PGA TOUR University. Åberg broke his PGA TOUR maiden at The RSM Classic in November 2023 during the FedExCup Fall swing. Ludvig crushed The RSM field winning by four strokes with a -29 score.
With that in mind, expectations were sky-high for Åberg entering 2024. Despite not winning a tournament this season, Ludvig has mostly met those expectations. He is fourth in the Official World Golf Rankings and sixth in the FedExCup standings entering the playoffs.
The presumptive 2024 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year has seven top-10s in 16 starts this year. This includes second place at The Masters, second at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, eighth at THE PLAYERS Championship, T10 at the RBC Heritage, and T5 at the Memorial Tournament. The Masters is The Masters and the other tournaments are "signature events".
Also, The RSM, PLAYERS, and Memorial are played at crossover courses to TPC Southwind. We are getting a good price Åberg this week. He had the same odds for the PGA Championship and U.S. Open as the FedEx St. Jude, and pricier odds for several "signature events" this season, according to GolfOdds.com.
Finally, elite and accurate ball strikers win at TPC Southwind. Ludvig is 10th in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) on TOUR this season, the most predictive stat in golf. Most of the second shots at TPC Southwind come from 150-200 yards out. Åberg is eighth on TOUR this season in APP from 150-175 yards and sixth in the 175-200 bucket. He is third in Total Driving as well, which accounts for distance and accuracy.
BET 1.1u on Ludvig Åberg (+2200) to profit 24.2u.
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Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
Speaking of "good price", Matsuyama should be +2500 or shorter to win the St. Jude. According to Fantasy National, Matsuyama is fifth in this field for total strokes over the last 36 rounds. Meanwhile, Hideki plays well at these tough, water-logged courses. He tied for second at the 2021 St. Jude, losing in a playoff with Abraham Ancer, and tied for 16th last year.
Furthermore, Matsuyama was T6 at THE PLAYERS this year, T8 at the Memorial, and won the bronze medal in the Paris Summer Olympic Golf tournament. Like TPC Southwind, Le Golf National in Paris is scoreable but has a ton of water danger. The first of Hideki’s eight career PGA TOUR victories was the 2014 Memorial and he has four career top-10s in 10 appearances in THE PLAYERS.
Hideki Matsuyama hits his tee shot on the ninth hole during Round 2 of the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023 at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. (Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)
TPC Scottsdale (Phoenix Open) and Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) are comp courses to TPC Southwind. Matsuyama is a back-to-back Phoenix Open champion in 2016-17 and the 2022 Sony Open champion. Hideki’s most recent PGA TOUR victory was The Genesis Invitational, a "signature event", in February.
Essentially, Matsuyama has won and contended in big tournaments, both at similar courses and recently. So, again, I’ll play Hideki all the way down to +2500.
BET 0.75u on Hideki Matsuyama (+3000) to profit 22.5u.
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Sam Burns (+5500)
This is kind of a random bet, but I feel like Burns will contend this week. Along with Matsuyama, Burns was the other guy who lost to Ancer in a playoff at the 2021 St. Jude. More importantly, Burns is a native Louisianan used to the sweltering hot conditions expected in Memphis this week and has legit win equity.
Three of the LSU alum's five career PGA TOUR victories are in SEC country: 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi and 2021-22 Valspar Championship in Florida. Both have Bermudagrass greens, which is Burns' best putting surface. His three-year PGA TOUR winning streak is on the line, but Burns has gotten close this year.
Bermuda Burns was tied for second entering Round 4 of The 152nd Open Championship, one stroke behind Billy Horschel, before shooting a final-round 80 and finishing T31. In addition, Burns has five top-10s this season, including 10th at Pebble Beach, T3 at the Phoenix Open, and T9 at the U.S. Open.
Remember, TPC Scottsdale is a crossover course to TPC Southwind, and Burns was T6 at last year's Phoenix Open too. TPC Scottsdale and Southwind have "risk, reward" holes, and Burns is fourth on TOUR this season birdie or better conversion rate because he is nasty with the flat-stick.
Sam Burns putts on the 11th hole the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship. (Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)
Driving accuracy is Burns' biggest downfall. He tends to eject from tournaments by hitting his tee shot out of bounds or going into the water. However, per Bet The Number, Burns is 5.8% more accurate than the TOUR average with his driver over the last 24 rounds with shot-link data.
If Burns stays out of the drink, he'll gain strokes off-the-tee (OTT). Sam is sixth on TOUR this year in Total Driving, sixth on APP shots from the rough, and knows how to hit the ball out of the tricky Bermuda rough. According to DataGolf.com, Burns has gained strokes with his irons in seven of his last nine starts.
Ultimately, Burns is one of the best putters in the world who pounds the ball OTT and can get hot with his irons. So, while this is a "random bet", Burns is a proven winner with the game that can win one of these "big boy" tournaments.
BET 0.4u on Sam Burns (+5500) to profit 22u.
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Finishing Position Bets
Place finishing position bets at BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel. BetMGM never applies "dead heat" rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2024.
Sahith Theegala Top-20 (+120): 1u to win 1.2u
Even though he doesn't have a win this season, Theegala is seventh in the FedExCup standings entering the St. Jude. Sahith has 10 top-20 finishes in 2024, including a second at The Sentry, a fifth in Phoenix, and a second at the RBC Heritage. Theegala has T13s in his first two St. Judes in 2022-23 as well.
On top of that, Theegala plays well on courses with a lot of water. He was T6 at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, T9 at THE PLAYERS, and T12 at the Memorial. Bay Hill and TPC Twin Cities are courses with a ton of water.
Sepp Straka Top-20 (+160): 0.75u to win 1.2u
The 31-year-old leads the TOUR in driving accuracy this season and plays well on courses with water danger. Straka's first career PGA TOUR win was The Honda Classic in 2022 at PGA National, which has the most holes with water of any course on TOUR. He tied for 16th at THE PLAYERS this year and tied for fifth at the Memorial.
Sepp Straka misses a putt to force a third playoff hole for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)
Moreover, Straka lost to Will Zalatoris in a playoff at the 2022 St. Jude. Lastly, most of the approach shots at TPC Southwind are from 150-175 yards out and Straka ranks eighth on TOUR this season from that distance.
Shane Lowry Top-20 (+138): 1u to win 1.38u
Keeping along with the theme of "plays well on tough courses with a lot of water" is Lowry. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic (formerly known as "The Honda"), third at the Arnold Palmer, and T19 at THE PLAYERS in 2024.
Also, the Irishman has a T6 at the PGA Championship, T9 at the Travelers Championship ("signature event"), and a sixth at The Open. Lowry is ninth in SG: APP on TOUR this year, 16th in driving accuracy, and 15th in Par 4 scoring.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.