Farmers Insurance Open 2025 Betting Card Includes Golfers With West Coast Ties
In a rare instance of awareness, the PGA TOUR schedules this week's Farmers Insurance Open 2025 from Wednesday to Saturday (Jan. 22-25), so it's not broadcasting its final round against the NFL Conference Championships Sunday. Frankly, the PGA TOUR should do that for the three tournaments that run during football season. But that's a conversation for another day.
For what it's worth, the Farmers is one of my favorite tournaments on the PGA TOUR's schedule. Granted, it helps that I hit an outright on Max Homa at the 2023 Farmers. This used to be the first event of the season for Tiger Woods during his heyday. Tiger is a seven-time winner of the Farmers, including four in a row from 2005-08.
I almost repeated myself at Torrey Pines last year but Frenchman Matthieu Pavon held off one of my picks, Nicolai Højgaard, to win the 2024 Farmers by one stroke. It was a brutal loss too because Pavon had to scramble to save par on the final hole with Højgaard scoring a birdie.
That was a foreshadowing of the disastrous betting season to come, and this one is already off to a shaky start. Through the first three tournaments of the 2025 PGA TOUR season, I'm -7.72 units (u). Nonetheless, I'm predicting I will get it all back this week at Torrey Pines, plus some. Now, let's discuss how I plan to do so.
Farmers Insurance Open 2025 Betting Card
Picks To Win
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com.
Keegan Bradley (+2200)
The 2011 PGA champion has finished T21 or better in five straight starts, highlighted by a win at the BMW Championship in August (the second round of the FedExCup Playoffs), T15 at The Sentry 2025, and T6 at the Sony Open earlier this month. Bradley has shot in the 60s for seven of his eight rounds so far this year.
According to DataGolf.com, Keegan has gained on the greens and off-the-tee (OTT) in three consecutive starts and with his irons in five straight, including the BMW and TOUR Championships. Lastly, Bradley has gotten close to winning this tournament before with a T4 in 2014, a T5 in 2015, and a second two years ago.
BET 1u on Keegan Bradley (+2200) to profit 22u
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Sahith Theegala (+3000)
Theegala is a West Coast guy. He is from Chino Hills, California, and played college golf at Pepperdine University in Malibu. Sahith’s best putting surface is Poa, which is common grass for greens on West Coast golf courses, including Torrey Pines. Theegala has gained strokes putting in all three career Farmers.
Also, he plays these long, tough courses well where you have to use all the clubs in your bag. This includes tournaments like the Farmers, Masters, Arnold Palmer, Genesis, the Memorial, and Wells Fargo. Theegala has made the cut in 19 of his 20 starts in those events, highlighted by a T4 at the 2023 Farmers and a T6 at the 2024 Arnold Palmer.
He always plays on the weekend of these tourneys because Theegala is good throughout the bag. The 27-year-old is gaining strokes in the four most important areas in golf — OTT, approach (APP), around-the-green (ARG), and putting — over his career. If his ball-striking is off, Theegala has the short-game to "get up and down".
Theegala drove the ball well in Hawaii, putts well on Poa greens, and has gained strokes ARG in six consecutive starts. If he can put all that together this week, Theegala can win his second PGA TOUR event at Torrey Pines.
BET 0.7u on Sahith Theegala (+3000) to profit 21u
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Beau Hossler (+5000)
Originally, I had Maverick McNealy on my Farmers 2025 betting card. However, I decided to go with Beau, who is the "poor man's Maverick", at a discount. Hossler has made six straight cuts dating back to the FedExCup Fall with a second at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October.
The Southern Californian began his 2025 season with a solid T12 at The American Express, where he gained strokes OTT, ARG, and Putting. Beau's iron-play is hot or cold, albeit mostly cold. Yet, he's picked up strokes with his irons in back-to-back Farmers and was T6 last year. If Hossler gets hot with the irons this week, he can win his first TOUR event this week.
BET 0.4u on Beau Hossler (+5000) to profit 20u
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Taylor Moore (+9000)
This is my "gut bet" of the 2025 Farmers because Moore's game fits Torrey Pines. Over the last 30 rounds, Moore is 26th in this field for SG: OTT, 11th in driving distance, and sixth in Scrambling, per BetTheNumber.com. Nuking the ball OTT and saving par is how you contend at the Farmers. Last week, Moore gained strokes in the four major golf stats while finishing T7 at The American Express.
BET 0.22u on Taylor Moore (+9000) to profit 20u
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Thriston Lawrence (+11000)
The 28-year-old already has seven international wins, including four on the DP World Tour. Lawrence earned his PGA TOUR card this season for finishing in the top 10 of the DP World Tour last year. He was fourth in the 152nd Open Championship, golf’s fourth major. Lawrence was T2 at the BMW PGA Championship in September on the DP World Tour, losing in a playoff to Billy Horschel with Rory McIlroy.
Also, Lawrence’s game fits Torrey Pines where you have to crush it OTT and hit putts. He led the DP World Tour in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting last season (minimum of 20 rounds played) and ranked 22nd in SG: OTT. While Lawrence’s 303.4-yard average drive was 57th on the DP World Tour last year is nothing to write home about, he’s still hitting the ball really effing hard.
For instance, Scottie Scheffler, the best golfer in the world and a well-known "flusher", had an average drive of 303.8 yards in 2024. Lawrence hit drives 21.4 yards further than the field on average at The Open, and that field had the world’s best golfers like Rory, Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, etc.
BET 0.2u on Thriston Lawrence (+11000) to profit 22u
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Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM never applies ‘dead heat’ rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for Farmers Insurance Open 2025.
Max Homa Top-20 at BetMGM (+150): 1u to win 1.5u
The six-time PGA TOUR champion is coming off of a down year. But, Homa is a Los Angeles native who plays these West Coast courses well and was inducted into the "Geoff Clark Golf Betting Hall of Fame" after winning the 2023 Farmers. Even in his down year, Homa still finished T13 at the 2024 Farmers, T8 at the Arnold Palmer, T3 at the Masters, and T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship, which are events at crossover courses to Torrey Pines.
Tony Finau Top-10 at BetMGM (+225): 0.5u to win 1.13u
The two-time Ryder Cupper has six top-10 finishes in his 10 career Farmers. Finau was T6 at the Farmers and T8 at the Memorial last season. The courses of the Farmers and Memorial are the only venues longer than 7,500 yards with greens smaller than 5,000 square feet. I.e. Finau plays these types of courses.
Tony Finau hits a tee shot during the final round of the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course - South Course in San Diego. (Photo credit: Ray Acevedo-Imagn Images)
There are a lot of approach shots from 175+ yards out and Finau has the ball-striking power to cover that distance. Plus, Finau's short-game is underrated. He's a "spike putter", but Finau is third in this field for SG: ARG over the last 30 rounds, according to BetTheNumber.com.
Alex Smalley Top-20 at DraftKings (+275): 0.5u to win 1.38u
This is a "model play" because Smalley is third in my 30-round model at BetTheNumber.com. Over that span, Smalley is sixth in this field for SG: OTT, 19th in driving distance, 17th in APP from 175+ yards, and first in Par 5 scoring, which is especially important since those are the only "gettable" holes at Torrey Pines.
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Farmers Insurance Open 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Rico Hoey
If I had my druthers, we (me and my girlfriend) would be using Keegan Bradley here. That said, I vetoed her choices for the first two events in the "Race for the Mayo Cup 2025" (our ‘one-and-done’ league), both of which would've outperformed my picks: Austin Eckroat at the Sony Open (missed cut with $0 earned) and Sam Burns at The American Express (T29 for $57,640).
Aside from my girlfriend's "vibes-based analysis", the pro-Hoey case is he hits the ball a mile OTT and is from Southern California, playing college golf at USC. Otherwise, I hate this pick. There is no way we should be using the 120th-ranked golfer. But, I have no leg to stand on since my picks have been worse than hers.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.