Farmers Insurance Open 2024 'Horses For The Course,' One-And-Done
I love how self-aware the PGA Tour is this week. The NFL conference championships are this weekend so the PGA Tour scheduled the Farmers Insurance Open 2024 at Torrey Pines in San Diego, California for Wednesday-Saturday, Jan. 24-27th. There's a hilarious theory behind this scheduling move by the PGA Tour.
CBS broadcasts the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open and Jim Nantz leads the broadcast crew. The theory states that Nantz wants to broadcast the final round of the Farmers Saturday then the AFC title game Sunday hence the PGA Tour's scheduling change. If this is true, it's one of the sickest flexes of power in the sports world.
Jon Rahm holds up the trophy for winning the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course in San Diego, California. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Anywho, Torrey Pines is one of the most iconic golf courses in North America. Tiger Woods won this tournament seven times and the 2008 U.S. Open here. Jon Rahm won the 2021 U.S. Open at the Torrey Pines South Course and his 1st-career win on Tour was the 2017 Farmers.
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Golfers alternate their 1st and 2nd rounds between the South and North courses at the Farmers. Then the South course hosts the final two rounds. The South course a Par-72 track, measuring 7,765 yards with Poa grass greens. The North course is also a Par 72 but shorter with Bentgrass greens.
Max Homa and I are reigning Farmers Insurance Open champions. I also cashed placement bets for Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama who finished T4 and T9, respectively. Homa didn't make my card this year because his odds are down from +2200 last year to +1200 this week.
Heads up: I’m researching my PGA Tour 2024 bets from models built with the tools courtesy of BetTheNumberGolf.com from the Tour Junkies golf show and Pat Mayo's FantasyNational.com. I was -3.95 units (u) at last week's American Express and my PGA Tour 2024 balance is -10.5u through the 1st four events this season.
My gambling strategy is to profit 20 units (u) for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10 or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
Farmers Insurance Open 2024 Picks
Sungjae Im
Sungjae had a down year last season but looks like he’s back in form in 2024. He set the PGA Tour record for birdies in a tournament in a T5-finish at the Sentry earlier this month.
More importantly, Sungjae plays well at Torrey Pines because he’s solid throughout the bag. Torrey Pines is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour calendar and it tests a golfer’s full skillset.
Im has made the cut in all five starts at the Farmers including T4 and T6 finishes over the past two seasons. He shot 9-under in the 2023 Farmers, four strokes behind the winner Homa. The 25-year-old shot a 74 (2-over par) at the North Course last year.
Sungjae Im plays an approach shot during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 on the South Course of Torrey Pines. (Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)
His other three scores at the South Course were 68, 67, and 70. So if Im shot as well at the North course as he did in his worst round at the South course, he would’ve been in a playoff with Homa. Sungjae picked up 5.5 strokes on the greens at the Farmers last season and 4.5 two years ago.
Like all U.S. Open courses, Torrey Pines is a “bomber’s paradise." While Im isn’t long off-the-tee (OTT), he’s efficient. Over the last 100 rounds, Sungjae is 9th in this field for SG: OTT. Torrey Pines has small greens, which tests golfers' around-the-green (ARG) game. Im was +4.6 SG: ARG at the Farmers two years ago and +2.0 last season.
1st thoroughbred for Torrey Pines: Sungjae Im
Sahith Theegala
My models don't support this pick but Theegala has played well at Torrey Pines in his two career Farmers appearances and is in great form. Sahith finished T25 at the 2022 Farmers and T4 last year. Earlier this month, Theegala was solo 2nd in the Sentry 2024, which is a "signature event".
He finished last season with a T13 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship (1st round of the FedExCup Playoffs) and T15 at the BMW Championship (2nd round of the playoffs). Then he won his 1st-career win on the PGA Tour, Fortinet Championship in November.
Sahith Theegala on the greens in the 3rd round of the Farmers Insurance Open 2023. (Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports)
I'd comp Sahith to Jordan Spieth with more power OTT. Both are a little wild with the driver but can makeup with their short games. Theegala gained strokes OTT in seven straight PGA Tour events with shot-link data.
Lastly, over his 24 rounds, Sahith is +0.6 SG: ARG and +0.45 SG: Putting. His birdie conversion rate is nearly 4% higher than the PGA Tour average and his Scrambling rate is 12% better. Theegala's best putting surface is Poa and he's elite with his long irons, which is a must at Torrey Pines.
2nd thoroughbred for Torrey Pines: Sahith Theegala
Nicolai Højgaard
Americans aren’t familiar with Højgaard because he’s a full-time DP World Tour member and doesn’t play much on the PGA Tour. But, last season, Højgaard finished 2nd behind Rory McIlroy on the DP World Tour for stroke average per event.
Højgaard is one of the best OTT in the world, regardless of what Tour he’s playing on. He was 8th last season on the DP World Tour in SG: OTT and 5th in yards gained on the field with the driver per start.
Furthermore, Højgaard’s driver is a big reason why he ranks 4th in Par 5 scoring on the DP World Tour. The Dane was +0.48 SG: Putting on the DP World Tour last season as well.
Nicolai Højgaard lifts the DP World Tour Championship trophy on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)
Nicolai played in 14 PGA Tour events last season, finishing as a runner-up once (Corales Puntacana Championship) and T6 in another event (Genesis Scottish Open).
Also, Højgaard was 14th on the PGA Tour last season in birdie-or-better rate from 200+ yards out. Torrey Pines is a “big boy’s course” that has one of the highest rates of approach shots of 200+ yards.
Finally, Højgaard is in good form, albeit overseas. He finished solo 2nd in the Nedbank Golf Challenge in November. Then won the DP World Tour Championship the week after over some of the world’s best golfers including Rory, Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, and more.
3rd thoroughbred for Torrey Pines: Nicolai Højgaard
Luke List
The 2022 Farmers Insurance Open champion is in good form. List beat out five golfers in a playoff to win the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship in October and has missed a cut since the Wells Fargo Championship in May 2023.
Luke List hugs his caddie after winning the playoff hole at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, California. (Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)
List is one of the best ball strikers in the world but sucks at putting. However, over his last 24 rounds, Luke is +0.11 SG: Putting. If List picks up strokes on the greens, he could win any tournament. His green-in-regulation rate is 12.3% better than the PGA Tour average over that span.
4th thoroughbred for Torrey Pines: Luke List
Farmers Insurance Open 'One-And-Done' Pick: Sahith Theegala
Through the 1st two events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I joined this season), I'm in a tie for 126th-place out of 4,400 entries with $936,475 collected.
Previous Picks
The other options I considered for the Farmers are Sungjae, Homa, Collin Morikawa, and Tony Finau. I'd rather use the 1st three in a "signature event" or major. I'm crossing off Finau since he could be popular since he has strong course history at Torrey Pines.
With that in mind, I'm going to gamble here with Theegala. There are a lot of good golfers in this field and Sahith won't be one of the most popular players picked for the Farmers. Plus, I'm not convinced Theegala is ready to win a major or signature event.