'Fake Sharp' Jets Will Get Rolled By Chargers On MNF In NFL Week 9
Usually, the market backs the Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) regardless of how they are playing. It happened during the Philip Rivers days. And it will continue for as long as Justin Herbert puts up gaudy passing numbers. The Chargers visit the New York Jets (4-3) for Monday Night Football in Week 9 and LA has climbed to a -3.5 road favorite.
Most weeks, this would be an obvious "fade the Chargers as road favorites" spot. Since LA hired head coach Brandon Staley in 2021, the Chargers are 6-5 straight up (SU) and 5-6 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites. That's not terrible but it you'd be down money backing Los Angeles in these spots.
But, the Bolts just feels like right play Monday. Between NYJ's world-class defense and injury issues to LA's WR corp, bettors are backing NYJ. Plus, this is a sell-high spot for the Jets. They have won three straight games and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets Week 9
First of all, the old sports betting adage Public 'dogs get slaughtered applies here. Per Pro Football Focus, more than 80% of the money is on the Jets as of Monday afternoon. Yet, the Chargers have gone from a -3 favorite on the opener up to 3-and-the-hook. It seems like the sportsbooks want more pro-Jets action.
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Also, the Jets are awful in high-leverage situations. They have the worst 3rd-down conversion differential in the league and rank 23rd in net red-zone touchdown rate. Jets QB Zach Wilson is the main reason for this. Wilson has the worst EPA/play among qualifying NFL QBs, per RBSDM.com.
Furthermore, the Jets need dumb-luck to win games. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen puked all over himself for NYJ to win in Week 1. They beat the Broncos in Week 5 and Denver is a dumpster-fire. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts pulled a Josh Allen to help the Jets steal a game in Philly in Week 6.
Then the Giants had -9 passing yards and were on their 3rd QB in NYJ's 13-10 overtime win last week. I.e. the Jets don't win, their opponents beat themselves. As long as the Chargers don't pee down their legs, they should win Monday.
Also, NYJ's offensive line cannot stop a nosebleed and LAC's offensive line is underrated. Entering Week 9, the Chargers are 6th in pressure rate allowed and the Jets are dead-last. Granted, Herbert gets rid of the ball quickly, which masks LAC's offensive line.
But, that's what the Chargers need against the Jets who are tied for 27th in missed tackles through seven games. The other teams with more missed tackles than NYJ have played at least eight games. With that in mind, I might look at receiving props for Chargers RB Austin Ekeler Monday.
Regardless, I'm laying the points with the Chargers and hoping they don't make me look stupid ...