Faith In Freddy: Bet Brewers Extend NL Wild Card Series Vs. D-Backs
It's win or go home for the 2023 NL Central Milwaukee Brewers (0-1). They host the Arizona Diamondbacks (1-0) at American Family Field for Game 2 in their best-of-three NL Wild Card series. The D-Backs beat the Brew Crew 6-3 Tuesday in the series opener to Milwaukee's season on the brink.
Arizona slugged 4 HRs in Game 1, three off of Brewers ace RHP Corbin Burnes whom they chased in the 4th inning. The D-Backs Game 1 starter only went 2.2 innings and they used six relievers to finish off the job.
For Game 2, Arizona gives RHP Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA). This will be the 2nd consecutive year Gallen will be an NL Cy Young finalist. Gallen has pitched against the Brewers twice this season. He allowed just 1 ER in 14.0 IP with a 15/2 K/BB rate.
Milwaukee gives RHP Freddy Peralta (12-10, 3.86 ERA) the start Wednesday. Peralta pitches better at home and has been dominate as a short home favorite. Since 2021, the Brewers are 8-1 as a home favorite of -130 or less in Peralta home starts.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Game 2 odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for Diamondbacks at the Brewers Game 2 in the 2023 NL Wild Card Series at PointsBet.
Given the starting pitching duel, I wouldn't hate a look on the UNDER 7.5 (-110) in Diamondbacks-Brewers Game 2. However, I give a slight edge to Peralta, especially at home, and a massive edge to Milwaukee's pitching staff.
When you look under the hood of their numbers, you could argue Peralta has better stuff than Gallen. According to Statcast, Peralta has a better expected ERA, expected batting average, exit velocity, K%, and whiff rate.
Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta delivers a pitch vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Milwaukee's bullpen has the 2nd-best ERA in MLB (2.16 ERA) since the beginning of September. Granted, Arizona is right behind the Brewers with a 2.31 ERA but, again, the D-Backs used six arms in relief Tuesday.
Also, Arizona's bats came alive in Game 1 but the D-Backs struggled at the dish down the stretch. Since September, Arizona's lineup ranks 22nd or worse in wRC+, WAR, wOBA, K%, and hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.
Finally, the bets are fairly even for Diamondbacks-Brewers Game 2. But, nearly two-thirds of the money is on Milwaukee's moneyline (ML) at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. Oddsmakers are reacting by making the Brew Crew's ML pricier.
My prediction: Brewers 4, Diamondbacks 2