Fading Both Los Angeles Teams In NBA Friday's Betting 3-Pack
For whatever reason, Friday is my favorite day to bet the NBA. Football takes center stage on the weekends and I don't have as much time to sink my teeth into the basketball slate.
However, by Friday, most of my NFL betting content is out and I use the NBA to build my bankroll for the weekend. Thanks to optimal bet sizing, I eked out a profit in the NBA for a second straight day Thursday. Let's keep it rolling with some ...
NBA Friday Fun
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards (-130), 7 p.m. ET tip-off
I'll explain why I like Washington in this game but 1st let me address my two concerns. First, the Wizards beat the Hornets 132-116 Wednesday in the front end of this back-to-back. Usually, you want to bet the team that just lost in these spots. It's hard to beat the same team consecutively in the NBA.
Also, Washington is one of my least favorite teams in the Association. I fundamentally disagree with how Wizards SG Jordan Poole plays basketball. That's the nicest way for me to put it. I cannot stand his game.
But, if you squint, there are things to like about DC's roster. Wizards wing Kyle Kuzma is the best scorer in this game and the Hornets are missing their best scorer, SG Terry Rozier III. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Rozier leads Charlotte in on/off net rating at +11.1.
WASHINGTON SPORTS TEAM OWNERS WANT D.C. TO GIVE THEM $600 MILLION TO FIX CAPITAL ONE ARENA
Furthermore, the Wizards have a few sharpshooters on their bench such as forwards Corey Kispert and Danilo Gallinari and SG Landry Shamet. This leads me to Washington's biggest edge in this matchup: 3-point shooting.
The Wizards attempt seven-and-a-half MORE "wide-open" 3s per game than the Hornets and allow four fewer. "Wide-open" is defined at least six feet worth of distance between the shooter and nearest defender.
That's potentially a lot of points to give up from behind the arc. Washington shot 41.9% from 3-point land in Charlotte Wednesday and hit twice as many 3s as the Hornets (18-9). A lot of those were "good looks" for the Wizards.
Finally, D.C. has a strength-on-weakness edge over Charlotte in ball security. The Wizards are 4th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) in non-garbage time and 6th defensively, per CTG. The Hornets are 18th in offensive TOV% and lost the turnover battle to the Wizards 20-10 Wednesday.
My prediction: Wizards 124, Hornets 118
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (-120), 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off
Last season, these teams split their four regular-season meetings but the Clippers covered three of those games. The Clippers are 0-2 since acquiring James Harden and the Mavs lost 127-116 to the Toronto Raptors Wednesday in their last outing.
First of all, I hate the Harden trade for the Clippers. Their defense suffers and the Clippers don't have players willing to do the dirty work like hustle for loose balls, set screens, and crash the glass. Instead, they have a bunch of score-1st players that cannot play off-ball.
Whereas the Mavericks seem to have their roles figured out. Kyrie Irving is the microwave scorer and Luka Doncic is who Dallas runs its offense through. The rest of the Mavs compliment Luka and, to a lesser extent, Kyrie.
Moreover, if this becomes a shootout, give me Dallas's offense. The Mavericks rank 5th in offensive efficiency and the Clippers are 14th. Plus, Dallas hits roughly five more 3-pointers per game than its foes.
The Mavericks get better looks as well. Dallas is 5th in "wide-open" 3-point attempt rate and LAC is 19th. Plus, per CTG, the Clippers rank 25th in shot location due to taking a bunch of inefficient mid-range jumpers.
Lastly, I just have a hunch Luka is going to ball out and carry the Mavs to a win. Luka has scored at least 33 points in seven straight Friday games vs. winning teams. Dallas has played this Clippers team a couple of times in the playoffs and Luka was the best player in those series. Luka averages 32.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in 28 career games against the Clippers.
My prediction: Mavericks 121, Clippers 115
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (-3.5), 10 p.m. ET tip-off
The Lake Show beat the Suns 100-95 in their 1st meeting this season, Oct. 26. However, Phoenix led that game for 35:11 minutes before choking that game away. The Lakers out-scored the Suns 28-11 in the 4th quarter. The Suns will be motivated to right that wrong Friday.
Also, Phoenix was without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal for that game in LA. Beal made his season debut Wednesday and is "probable" for Friday's game vs. the Lakers. Pending rust, Beal should torch Lakers guards D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves.
This Lakers-Suns meeting is in Phoenix and the Lakers have been terrible on the road thus far. They are 0-5 overall and 1-4 vs. the spread on the road this season. The Lakers allow nearly 14 more points per game in away games and score roughly five fewer points.
More importantly, Lakers big Anthony Davis is "questionable" for Friday with a groin injury. AD missed LA's game in Houston Wednesday and the Rockets beat the Lakers by 34 points. There are a lot of stats highlighting LeBron James' importance but LA cannot play defense without Davis.