Fade The Public: Take The Nets ATS Vs. Cavs Tuesday
No one is backing the Brooklyn Nets when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers Tuesday at the Barclays Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Perhaps rightfully so.
Cleveland has the best net rating in the NBA and Brooklyn enters on a 3-game losing skid with an 0-3 against the spread (ATS) record over that stretch.
The Cavaliers have won four of their last six games over the past two weeks (3-3 ATS) with the most recent being a 117-94 beatdown of the Wizards on St. Patrick's Day.
Cavaliers PG Darius Garland celebrates with F Mamadi Diakite vs. the Wizards at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Prior to their current 3-game losing streak, the Nets covered six straight games from March 3-12 with ATS wins vs. the Celtics, at the Bucks, and at the Nuggets.
Brooklyn beat Cleveland 125-117 but that was a far different Nets team. Kevin Durant and Kyrie both scored 32 points and SF T.J. Warren added 23 points off the bench. None of those three still play for Brooklyn.
Cavaliers at Nets Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The 1st thing that jumps out to me when handicapping Cavaliers-Nets is the betting splits. Per VSIN, nearly 90% of the action at DraftKings is on Cleveland at the time of writing.
The Cavs are gone from -2.5 on the opener to -4. There's been too much line movement from the original line. Cleveland big Jarrett Allen may return from a 4-game hiatus, which could explain the line movement.
But, I doubt the oddsmakers left that out of the opening spread, which was fishy in the 1st place. My read on sportsbooks opening the Nets as +2.5 'dogs is they think Brooklyn is due for a slump-buster.
The Nets have a bunch of 3-point shooters including SF Mikal Bridges who’s been ballin’ since arriving from Phoenix in the Kevin Durant trade.
The Brooklyn Nets talk during the game vs. the Sacramento Kings at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
Bridges is averaging 25.9 points per game (PPG) on 49.6% shooting (43.9% from 3). PF Yuta Watanabe, SG Joe Harris, and SG Seth Curry all shot better than 40.0% from 3 for Brooklyn.
The Cavs are hitting just 35.1% of their 3s over their last seven games, which would rank 22nd if it were over the entire season. Darius Garland is the only player in Cleveland hitting better than 40.0% of their 3s.
Brooklyn C Nic Claxton is one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA. He's a big reason the Nets are 5th in defensive field goal percentage vs. shots at the rim and 1st vs. all mid-range jumpers, per CleaningTheGlass.com.
If Allen misses Tuesday, Claxton can focus all of his attention on neutralizing Mobley. Even if Allen suits up, he doesn't have the offensive skillset to give Cleveland's frontcourt a decisive edge over Brooklyn's.
BET: Nets +4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +3
The Brooklyn Nets' odds vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, March 21st at 3:45 p.m. ET.
PS Player Prop: Sacramento Kings SF Keegan Murray Points
In the 1st Celtics-Kings meeting back on Nov. 25th, Murray only scored 3 points on 1-of-8 (1-of-6 from behind the arc) in just 22:43 minutes of action.
However, Murray played his tail off, grabbing 10 rebounds and Boston's defense has been mediocre since the All-Star break. Murray plays better at home and is getting more run with Kings SG Kevin Huerter out with an injury.
Murray takes a layup during the game vs. the New York Knicks at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)
Murray is averaging 12.8 points per game at home this season and is shooting 45.6% from 3. Over the past two games, both of which Huerter missed, Murray has scored 19 and 22 points.
Also, Murray plays with two elite passers in De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. They'll command a bulk of Boston's defensive bandwidth, which should get Murray some quality looks.
Odds for Sacramento Kings SF Keegan Murray's point prop vs. the Boston Celtics from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, March 21st at 3:45 p.m. ET.