Fade The Phony Buccaneers In NFL Week 10 With Titans
We discussed this of Tennessee Titans (3-5) rookie QB Will Levis' NFL debut in Week 8. There are just spots where the Titans are a "bet on" team and Sunday is another one. Tennessee visits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) in Week 10 and the Bucs opened as slight favorites (-1.5).
As of Tuesday afternoon, the line on the Buccaneers is down to -1 (-110) at PointsBet. Tampa covered as +2.5 underdogs in a 39-37 gut-wrenching loss at the Houston Texans last week. While the Titans lost at the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-16 as +3 'dogs on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.
Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis makes pre-snap adjustments vs. the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
But, since 2018 (Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel's 1st year on the job), the Titans are 9-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) with a +5.3 spread differential as ‘dogs vs. teams with a losing record including five straight wins.
Also, Tennessee has a rest edge over Tampa Bay. Well, the Titans are 10-7 SU and 11-6 ATS (+7.1 spread differential) with a rest edge in the Vrabel era. More importantly, the Bucs peaked earlier this season and I'm looking to fade them down the stretch.
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 10
Betting odds for the Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 10 as of Tuesday, Nov. 7th.
First of all, let's audit Tampa Bay's wins and covers this year. The Bucs beat the Minnesota Vikings 20-17 in Week 1 despite losing yards per play (YPP) 5.9-3.6 thanks to flukey turnovers. In Week 2, Tampa got a 4-yard pick-6 with 2:03 left to beat the Chicago Bears 27-17.
The Buccaneers got housed by the Philadelphia Eagles 25-11 on Monday Night Football in Week 3. No big deal there. The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champion. Then Tampa's best game of the season came in Week 4 with a 26-9 whooping of the New Orleans Saints.
Following their Week 5 bye, the Lions blasted the Bucs 20-6 in Detroit in Week 6. Tampa Bay then lost 16-13 at home to Atlanta even though Falcons QB Desmond Ridder fumbled twice on the goal line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield passes while being hit by a Buffalo Bills pass rusher at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Afterward, the Buccaneers got a luck-box cover in a 28-16 loss at the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 8. Last week, Tampa had a misleading ATS win in Houston. The Bucs lost YPP (8.0-5.3) and converted five fewer 1st downs (26-21).
The point of my spiel is Tampa is overrated because of fraudulent covers. Nfeloapp.com says the market makes the Buccaneers a half-point favorite over the Titans on a neutral-field. Whereas, due to coaching and continuity, I make Tennessee close to a 2-point favorite vs. Tampa Bay.
TITANS NAME WILL LEVIS THEIR STARTING QB AS RYAN TANNEHILL’S DAYS WITH CLUB COMING TO A CLOSE
Furthermore, I'm slightly excusing Tennessee's loss in Pittsburgh last week. Everyone knows about Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin's voodoo. Visiting Pittsburgh on a short-week is a tough spot for a rookie QB.
While there aren't "moral victories" in the NFL but Levis showed moxie. Levis completed 22 of 39 throws for 262 yards and was intercepted in the end zone for a would-be game-winning TD pass with 00:11 remaining.
However, Levis getting the Titans in position to score at the end of regulation is a "moral victory". Plus, this week, Levis faces a Tampa Bay defense 31st in yards per pass allowed, 25th in opponent's QB Rating, and 22nd in sack rate.
Finally, the Buccaneers have a +8 turnover margin, which is due for regression. They have the worst early-down success rate differential with turnovers removed, per RBSDM.com. Early-down efficiency is more predictive than basic stats because the full playbook is available.
My prediction: Titans 26, Buccaneers 16
Bet slip for the Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 10.