Fade The Market's Blind-Faith In Bills With Buccaneers On TNF

You're going to laugh after reading my most important factor for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-3) Thursday Night Football game in Week 8. Here we go. My best friend is in the Bills Mafia and has a really good read on his squad. Well, he realizes something is off in Buffalo and thinks Tampa covers Thursday.

Now, I'm not just blindly trusting my buddy's handicap of Buccaneers-Bills. However, after reverse engineering his analysis, it checks out. Speaking of "blindly trusting," the betting market Buffalo in lieu of its obvious blemishes.

New England Patriots LB Ja'Whaun Bentley and DE Christian Barmore tackle Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports)

In fact, per Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the money in the consensus market is on the Bills to cover their -9.5 spread. The public was beating up on the oddsmakers before last week. But, sportsbooks crushed the public in Week 7 and that'll continue until the books get its money back and then some.

Furthermore, the Bills were -10 favorites over the Bucs on the preseason line. Based on what we've seen from Buffalo recently, how in god's name are the Bills only a half-point cheaper? It's because the public is going to bet Buffalo regardless.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills in Week 8

Betting odds for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 8 as of Thursday, October 26th at 3 p.m. ET.

No one thought Tampa would be 3-3 through six games. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is exceeding preseason expectations thus far. Tampa's defense is 10th in EPA/play and only one opponent has scored more than 20 points vs. the Bucs.

Let's circle back on the "obvious blemishes" for the Bills. These include cluster-injuries to their defense and an injury to Josh Allen's throwing shoulder. Buffalo's defense has three All-Pro-caliber players in the IR: LB Matt Milano, CB Tre'davious White, and DT DaQuan Jones.

Also, as OutKick NFL columnist Armando Salguero wrote earlier this week, Allen is in his head about turnover issues and lack of execution.

“Maybe I’ve got to be more upbeat and be a voice and be a little bit more loud – let my emotions show a little bit more. Whether I do that Thursday or not, I guess, will come with the execution of it, because obviously, everybody is having more fun when you’re winning football games and performing well. So, that’s first and foremost. We’ve got to go out there and execute. I think execution breeds energy.”

LISTEN: OutKick Bets' NFL Week 6 Gambling Powwow with Scott Martin from Fox News

Finally, and this is my flimsiest betting factor, but this is a buy-low spot for the Buccaneers. After starting 2-0, Tampa Bay has lost back-to-back home games to the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons. That said, Detroit's and Atlanta's defenses are underrated and backing Baker in primetime just feels right.

My prediction: Bills 24, Buccaneers 20

Bet 1.5 units on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 (1 unit = $10) at the Buffalo Bills in Week 8.