Fade The Movement On The Total For This Sweet 16 Game

BYU vs. Alabama, 7:09 ET

With the Sweet 16 here, we only have (I think) a total of six days of college basketball remaining. The Sweet 16 today and tomorrow, then the Elite Eight on Saturday and Sunday. That brings the Final Four next Saturday and then the championship game the following Monday. Again, I could be getting something wrong, but the problem is that we are barely using two hands to count the remaining days. This has been an awesome betting year for College Basketball and I'm sad to see it go. Before it does, let's make some cash on the BYU vs. Alabama game. 

BYU is 26-9 coming into this game and not a team that I followed overly closely this season. They flew a bit under the radar as they weren't ranked for the majority of the season. They did eventually climb into the rankings, but they certainly weren't a mainstay. They finished 3rd in the Big 12 this season and had a 14-6 record in conference play. They, like basically everyone in that conference, lost to Houston in the regular season and then they lost again in the Conference Tournament. The regular season conference losses came at the hands of Houston, Texas Tech, TCU, Utah, Arizona, and Cincinnati. I won't say all of those were acceptable losses, but for the most part, they were expected. The other games that they dropped were against Ole Miss and Providence. In the first two games of the NCAA Tournament they took down VCU and narrowly escaped Wisconsin. The game against VCU was still pretty close, but they were favorites in that. Against Wisconsin, they tried as hard as they could to blow the game. They were up eight points with fewer than 90 second remaining and only could win by two points. 

BYU Cougars PG Egor Demin shoots a floater over the Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center. (Photo credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images)

Alabama is a team that I have followed closely this year and we've talked about them probably more than almost anyone but Auburn and Duke. This is a good team that does one thing very well: score the ball. They are not a defensive stopper type team, but they don't really need to be. Or, maybe better put, they haven't needed to be yet in the tournament. This team is really talented, and while I don't think they will advance past this weekend, it is clear why they are favored in this matchup. They finished 3rd in the very difficult SEC, and are currently 27-8 for the season. In the first game, they somehow decided to let Robert Morris make it a game and they won by just nine points. A lot of people liked St. Mary's to give Alabama a game, but I think they took that one a bit more serious and were able to win it by 14. Prior to the tournament, they were playing one of the toughest schedules you'll find for the season. They had to face a ranked team for at least eight of their last nine games. They probably were overlooking Robert Morris, if I had to make a guess.

It would surprise me quite a bit if BYU was able to pull off the upset in this game. The Cougars are one of the teams that seems to be playing up to their highest potential. For them to have a chance in this game, they need to find a way to slow the pace down. If they play to Alabama's pace, this one will be over quickly. The under is the best way to go with this. The total is 175.5 right now, and if you look at BYU's games, two of their last five have gone over, and it is the same for Alabama with one of those going to overtime. The games that have gone over are not exactly flying over the total, so I think we should be okay here as most possessions will be slowed down with the increased importance of winning this one. Alabama probably covers the spread too. 

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