Fade 'Fake Sharp' Minnesota Vikings Vs. Houston Texans Sunday In NFL Week 3

The Minnesota Vikings (2-0) are this season's surprise team as they host the Houston Texans (2-0) for NFL Week 3. Projected to finish last in the division, Minnesota sits atop the NFC North through the first two games. The Vikings embarrassed the Giants 28-6 in New York in their season opener and upset the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 at home last week. 

Houston has failed to cover the spread by a half-point in both wins. As -2.5 road favorites, the Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 29-27 in Week 1. Then the Chicago Bears backdoor covered as +6.5 underdogs in Houston's 19-13 Week 2 win on Sunday Night Football. 

I'm doing this thing for my NFL Week 3 picks, Four Factors, to explain why I think a team will cover the spread. For Texans-Vikings: 1- Minnesota is the fake sharp pick of this week, 2- The Vikings' 2-0 record is fade-able, 3- Houston's defense can make Minnesota one-dimensional, and 4- The Texans have the best offensive personnel in the NFL. 

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings Odds (Caesars Sportsbook) 

• Moneyline: Houston (-140) | Minnesota (+118)
• Spread: TEXANS -2.5 (-110) | Vikings +2.5 (-110)
• Total — 46 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

First of all, Minnesota plus the points will be a fake sharp wager in Week 3 and public betting splits support that. Pro Football Focus (PFF) shows more than 70% of the action is on the Vikings +2.5 as of Wednesday. Pregame.com reports that three-fourths of the cash is on Minnesota's spread. But, "public underdogs" get slaughtered by sportsbooks. 

Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold fakes a handoff to RB Aaron Jones vs. the San Francisco 49ers at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Brad Rempel-Imagn Images)

The Texans' 0-2 and Vikings' 2-0 against the spread records are misleading

Second, Houston "should’ve" covered vs. the Colts and Bears. Indianapolis QB Anthony Richardson threw 60- and 54-yard touchdown passes that were part flukey, part spectacular. That said, the Texans had 12 more first downs and 114 more total yards, and Indy "backdoor covered" by scoring a meaningless touchdown with 2:13 left.

Furthermore, Houston out-gained Chicago 5.1-3.1 in yards per play. Technically, they tied 15-15 on first-down conversions. However, the Bears had five first downs via penalty and snuck in the backdoor with a 54-yard field goal down nine points with 2:56 remaining. 

Even though kickers are making 50+ yard field goals now more than ever in the NFL, it’s not a given, so Bears +6.5 backers, myself included, got lucky to cash that ticket Sunday. Not to mention, Texans backup RB Cam Akers fumbled on Chicago’s 4-yard line with 6:38 left and a chance to put that game away for good. 

The Giants are a disgrace, so I'm not putting much stock into that game. Minnesota's win and cover over San Francisco aren't as impressive when you analyze that game. The Niners didn't have reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year RB Christian McCaffrey. But, they were +7 in net first downs, and if you remove Justin Jefferson's 97-yard TD, the 49ers out-gained the Vikings in yards per play. 

Houston’s defense can make Minnesota’s offense one-dimensional

Third, the Texans allowed 104 rushing yards on 22 carries to the Colts in Week 1 and 71 rushing yards on 22 carries to Chicago Sunday. Bears QB Caleb Williams had a team-high 44 rushing yards on 8 carries Sunday and Richardson ran for a team-high 56 yards on 6 rushes two weeks ago. 

Houston Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. reacts after Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is sacked at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Yet, Vikings QB Sam Darnold is far less mobile than Richardson and Williams, so it’ll be easier to stifle Minnesota’s ground game. Houston's defense was second in yards per rush allowed last season (3.5 yards per rush). The Texans have studs in their front seven, including defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. 

The Texans have the better offense

With all due respect to Jefferson, the best wide receiver in the NFL, Houston has the better offensive personnel entering Week 3. Minnesota WR Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson are sidelined with injuries. Texans WR Nico Collins will become the betting favorite to win the 2024-25 NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) after Week 3. 

"Collins to lead the league in receiving yards" at +2900 was my best bet for the Texans entering 2024. I also snuck in a bet on Collins to win NFL OPOY at +10000 odds. After the first two games, Collins now has the sixth-best odds to win NFL OPOY at +1700 and leads the league in receiving yards (252). 

Finally, and this was the most flagrant version of "burying the lede", Houston QB C.J. Stroud is an absolute monster. It's impossible to overreact to how well Stroud plays. Between his pocket presence, arm talent, and football I.Q., Stroud will be a top-five quarterback by year's end, if he isn't already. 

Prediction: Texans 26, Vikings 17

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