Fade Cincinnati Bengals In 'Must-Win' Vs. Denver Broncos Saturday
A well-known professional sports bettor whose name escapes me once said: "If you're in a ‘must-win', you must not be that good". Well, the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) are in a "must-win" when they host the Denver Broncos (9-6) at Paycor Stadium Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Entering Week 17, Denver is the seventh and final seed in the AFC playoff picture, and Cincy is 10th.
The Broncos clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Bengals or Kansas City Chiefs, who have nothing to play for, next week. To make the playoffs, Cincinnati has to win Saturday and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18, plus the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins lose once.
I planned on betting the Bengals in this spot initially. Cincy QB Joe Burrow would be in the NFL MVP discussion if they won a couple of the coin-flip outcomes they lost earlier this season. Denver rookie QB Bo Nix cost me a ton of money while playing for the Auburn Tigers in college and I haven't bet on him this year.
The Denver Broncos visit the Cincinnati Bengals Saturday in NFL Week 17 at Paycor Stadium in Ohio. (Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)
But, then I remembered the saying I used in my intro blurb and dug into this matchup further. I successfully faded the Broncos last week in their 34-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers because Denver was overrated after a few luck-box covers. Hence, I thought the Broncos were this lucky team, and Cincinnati's bad luck this year has been publicized.
Best Bet: Denver Broncos +3.5 (-118) at DraftKings
However, that's not accurate. Sure, Denver covered a few games it should've barely won or lost outright. Nonetheless, the Broncos are 1-5 in one-score games and the Bengals are 2-7. So, if you flip those coin-flip results, Denver would be 13-2 and Cincinnati would be 12-3.
Furthermore, the Broncos have 9.7 "expected wins" based on net efficiency vs. the 28th-toughest schedule, per Pro Football Focus. Cincy has 8.2 "expected wins" vs. the 27th-toughest schedule. The Bengals can make excuses, but they just aren’t that good. They are 28th in points per game allowed, and the Broncos have better underlying metrics. Albeit slightly.
Also, Denver has a significant edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and performance at the line of scrimmage is one of the most predictive things in football. Per ESPN, the Broncos rank eighth or better in pass-protection, run-blocking, pass-rush, and run-stopping win rates. Cincinnati is 21st or worse in those four metrics.
The Denver Broncos celebrate a defensive stop vs. the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)
Again, because Nix cost me so much money in college football from 2019-21 and I don't believe he'll be a long-term franchise quarterback, Denver +3 is my least favorite pick in Week 17 of the Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest. That said, due to Christmas and a tough Week 17 slate, I'm forced to ditch my stubbornness and back the Broncos.
Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Denver 28
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