Fade Bobby Witt For Home Run Derby

Home Run Derby, 8:15 ET

Today is one of those rare days of the year when no Big Four sports take place. However, we do get one of the more fun events in the sporting season as the Home Run Derby takes place. I've been a bit critical of the event lately as it used to take too much time and became rather boring. It does seem like the format was better last year, and it will be similar this year. More importantly, we can bet the Home Run Derby, and we are going to do just that. Let's see what the best bets we can make tonight. 

To start, let's explain the way that this Derby will take place. Originally, it was a knockout style competition where people were in a bracket and in order to advance you just had to beat your opponent. That won't happen now until the semifinals. There will be no seeds in the first round and the top 4 hitters will make it to the semifinals, where a bracket will be created. There is also a pitch limit. This is an interesting wrinkle as we have 40 pitches maximum in the first round. There is still a time limit as well, but this could potentially cause people to swing a bit more and allows less complaining about how quick or slow pitchers are throwing. The final round also has a limit of just 27 pitches, or two total minutes. The bonus period is interesting as well. The bonus pitches come until the hitter records three outs. If the hitter hits a homer of 425 or more feet within the bonus period, they then obtain a fourth out. 

There are eight candidates to win the award - Pete Alonso (former winner), Marcell Ozuna, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adolis Garcia (home ballpark), Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez, and Alec Bohm. Alonso is the favorite and for good reasons. As mentioned, he is a former winner of the Derby, and pretty much all he is known for is hitting bombs. He is currently ranked 14th in the league with 19 homers. I would be very surprised if he doesn't at least make it to the semifinals, and the books feel the same way with a -210 line for him getting there. Texas isn't known as a very hard place to hit homers so I do expect him, with the familiarity of his fifth derby now, to be able to get over 24.5 homers in the first round. This should count the bonus round as well. When Alonso gets going, he is going to mash a ton of balls and a lot will fly over the fence. He knows what it takes to manage this and I expect him to do well in the first round.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals

Another first-round bet I like is Bobby Witt Jr. to go under the 21.5 homers. Witt is a very good player and having a great campaign, but he only has 16 homers for the season. I don't really look at him as a home run hitter. He was able to hit 20 his first season and then 30 in the second season, and is on pace for around 30 this season as well. That's a good number for the campaign, but I don't think that his swing or his style really translates to this competition. I'd be surprised if he gets much further than 18 or 19 home runs. I'm going to back the under at +100 for Witt. 

A line that is standing out to me is Gunnar Henderson vs. Witt in the first round. Remember, these aren't direct matchups, so it is simply who will hit more home runs. Ultimately, all players try to hit as many homers as possible in every round, but specifically with the first round, in order to advance you have to beat four people instead of just one. I think Henderson, who has 28 homers on the season - good for third in the league, is better equipped and capable of making a deep run. The line on this one is Henderson -105 vs. Witt (-115) and I've already mentioned I don't think Witt will perform all that well, so I'll back Henderson here. 

Finally, I suppose it is only correct to pick a winner. In my opinion, Alonso will probably win once again, but I'm not going to choose the favorite in this one. I am going to take Marcell Ozuna instead. Ozuna is fourth in the league with 26 home runs and one of the guys I would consider a power hitter. He is having a great first half and is locked in. He is tied for second-best odds at +425. I will back him here to win at +425. A final note, of all the longshots, I like Jose Ramirez best at +1300. He has been unbelievably good for years and can be a power hitter when needed. 

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