Fade All The LSU Money And Bet Florida State ATS

Absolutely no one is betting the Florida State Seminoles (1-0) in college football’s standalone game Sunday vs. the LSU Tigers (0-0).

In fact, 80% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on LSU -4 (-110) at the time of publishing per VSIN. I witnessed bet splits as high as 90% in favor of LSU and the Tigers were 3-point favorites Sunday morning.

However, I’m fading the lopsided market and BETTING the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES +4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Florida State Seminoles RB Trey Benson runs in for a touchdown during the game against the Duquesne Dukes at Bobby Bowden Field in Tallahassee, Florida. (Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

I'm confident going the other way in Florida State-LSU because the Geaux Tigers handicap is too easy. For instance, LSU poached head coach Brian Kelly from Notre Dame this offseason. Kelly crushed at Notre Dame and he's a much more accomplished coach than Florida State coach Mike Norvell.

Furthermore, Florida State-LSU is a “neutral site” game. But, it’s at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. Tigers fans from Baton Rogue, LA will pack the Superdome Sunday. Obviously, giving LSU a home-crowd advantage.

Most importantly, the SEC owns college football and Florida State isn't a powerhouse program anymore. LSU recruits better players than Florida State and I think Kelly will bring the Tigers back to the College Football Playoffs within a few seasons.

But...

All that stuff is baked into the line. Meaning all of the above already factors into the sportsbook's original number. Speaking of which, Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas opened LSU as a 2-point favorite in May.

Circa is a “market-making” sportsbook that welcomes some of the most sports betting action in the world. So you know Circa accounted for Florida State-LSU in New Orleans for the pricing. Also, TeamRankings.com gives home-field advantage a plus-2.2-point bump.

Essentially, the oddsmakers think Florida State-LSU is a coin-flip matchup on a neutral field, which the Superdome is not. Hence we are getting an extra two points with FLORIDA STATE +4 (-110).

On top of that, there's a quality case for Florida State beating LSU outright. The Seminoles have the 2nd-most returning production on defense in the country, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. They'll face an LSU offense with either a transfer or freshman starting QB in Kelly's first season.

Sure, LSU five-star stud WR Kayshon Boutte could tear up Florida State's defense and the Tigers have a bunch of raw talent on offense. But, LSU's offense ranks 96th in returning production and it'll take time to gel.

Finally, Florida State's offense should have success Sunday. The Tigers were 61st in non-garbage time defensive success rate in 2021. Florida State returns most of its skill-position players and performed much better once QB Jordan Travis became the starter last season.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES +4 (-110).