How Can You Not Bet The Indianapolis Colts In Week 1 Over The Houston Texans?

As crazy as it sounds, because everyone loves the Houston Texans entering 2024, there are so many reasons to bet the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. Firstly, sports betting insider Ben Fawkes reported on X Monday that 85% of the action at DraftKings is on the Texans. While betting splits aren't gospel, your first instinct should be to fade that lopsided action. 

But, when I dig deeper into this matchup, there are additional arguments supporting Indianapolis. They gained more yards per play in two meetings with Houston last season. Colts QB Anthony Richardson rushed for two first-quarter TDs before leaving with a concussion in Indy's 31-20 Week 2 home win over Houston. 

Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson rushes for a TD vs. the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Texas. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Also, this is a revenge game for the Colts, who lost to the Texans, 23-19, at home in the regular-season finale for the AFC South crown. Indy converted more first downs (21-16), but went 1-for-11 on third down and 0-for-3 in the red zone. Based on down-to-down efficiency, the Colts were the better team that day. 

However, they lost because they choked in high-leverage situations, which tends to be random. Teams will convert most of their third-down and red-zone opportunities one week and then piss down their leg the next. More importantly, this line is off by 2.5-3 points because Houston is getting a ton of offseason buzz. 

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: Houston (-146) | Indianapolis (+124)
• Spread: Texans -2.5 (-114) | COLTS +2.5 (-106)
• Total — 49.5 — Over (-105) | Under (-115)

After winning a playoff game last season, Houston is an even-money favorite to win the 2024 AFC South. And for good reason. Texans QB C.J. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever behind a banged-up offensive line with a first-year head coach. They got better this offseason by acquiring Pro Bowl pass rusher Danielle Hunter and WR Stefon Diggs.

That said, Houston is getting a little too much love here. "Home field" advantage is worth 2.5-3 points in the NFL and the Texans are 2.2 points better than the Colts on a neutral field, according to Inpredictable.com. This website lists the market’s (or "betting public’s") power rating for each NFL team. I.e., the wisdom of crowds says this game should be a pick ‘em. 

The Texans are -2.5 because they are the "hot team" entering the season and Richardson looked like sh*t in the preseason. Yet, the preseason doesn’t mean sh*t, and the Colts have a strength-on-weakness edge on the ground. They rushed for 6.1 and 5.5 yards per carry for 353 rushing yards in two games vs. the Texans last year. 

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushes the ball against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports)

In Week 18, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor ran for 188 yards on 30 carries and 1 TD. If Richardson stays healthy, Indianapolis will have a top-five rushing attack. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in football, Richardson is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL, and Taylor is a top-10 running back. 

Besides DE, and 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Will Anderson Jr., Houston’s defensive line has poor run-stopping grades at Pro Football Focus. Plus, the Texans couldn’t run the ball vs. the Colts in 2023-24. They gained 2.1 and 2.0 yards per attempt in two meetings with Indy last season for 112 rushing yards.  

Lastly, since 2014, divisional underdogs in Week 1 are 36-15 against the spread (ATS). That’s a 70.6% hit rate with a +4.7 ATS margin. Between this trend, Indy’s ground game, everyone and their grandmothers betting Houston, and how well the Colts played the Texans last year, Indianapolis +2.5 is my favorite bet for NFL Week 1. 

Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 24

• I'd wait until closer to kickoff to bet Indy since the public is hammering Houston and this spread could get up to "Colts +3".

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.