Evaluating The Paul Skenes Awards Market

Just a few years ago, Paul Skenes played catcher, first base, and third base. Sure, he pitched, but it wasn't the primary focus of his career. There are a number of stories out there about pitchers who are former position players, but this one has to be the biggest success story. Everyone knew that he was going to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. Last season, when Skenes was pitching for LSU, there was a lot of talk about how he could walk onto just about every MLB team and instantly be a starter for them. It is hard to evaluate how talent will respond to a Major League lineup, but with Skenes we didn't have to wait long as he was called up from the minors after very few starts. 

How has his Major League start gone? Skenes was called up on May 11th and has made a total of 11 starts in his career. He is about to make his unofficial 12th start with him starting the All-Star Game. How crazy is it that a guy who didn't even throw a Major League pitch before this, and was facing college hitters 12 months ago, is now going to represent the Pirates in the All-Star Game and start the game for the National League. You have to say it is well deserved. Skenes has just two starts where he hasn't produced a quality start in his 11 outings. It wasn't due to runs allowed, it was because he went four and five innings in those two starts. It isn't just that those nine other starts have been good, they have been damn near unrealistic. Video game quality even. He has two starts where he went at least six innings of no-hit baseball. Not scoreless, no-hit baseball. The only reason he didn't get a chance to finish those games is because of pitch counts and he threw 11 strikeouts in both of them. He has 89 strikeouts for the season which is good for 60th in the league. He doesn't qualify for ERA or WHIP (1.90 and 0.92) but if he can get there, he'd be second and third, respectively. 

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 11: Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws a pitch in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on July 11, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

I think I've done a good job of establishing the grounds for why this article is even being written. The question is, should we bet on Skenes for awards this year? Barring injury, he is positioned to win Rookie of the Year, potentially Cy Young, and if the Pirates can make the playoffs, maybe even MVP consideration. Let's start with Rookie of the Year. Skenes will be the Rookie of the Year in the NL. The betting market has been wild with him, but it keeps getting more and more in his favor with every start. He currently sits at -1000 to win the award. For those that don't bet often, that means you have to bet $1,000 to win $100. There are a few potential competitors - Jackson Merrill, who is hitting .278 with 12 homers, and 46 RBIs, and Shota Imanaga who burst out of the gate with a Skenes-like streak and has since slowed down. Merrill has been good, but he would need a huge second half to steal the award away. Imanaga would need to pitch like he did the first two months of the season, and Skenes would need to have some disasters. The next award would be Cy Young. There are some big tickets floating out there for Skenes. He is currently third in the odds with +500 at DraftKings. In front of him is Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale. Sale has been phenomenal this season, and probably should already have a trophy on his shelf. Sale leads the league in wins, which isn't a heavily valued number any longer, but still impressive and he should probably be a 20-game winner. For the ERA, he is at 2.70 which is 7th best, and has a 0.95 WHIP which is 5th in the league. He also has 140 strikeouts, putting him fifth there as well. Wheeler is also having a great campaign at 10-4 with a 2.70 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. He also has 126 strikeouts, but those are all top-10 numbers as well. 

The main reason I don't think Skenes will win is not because of Wheeler or Sale, it is because of the voters. Baseball voters seem to hate good stories and things. Skenes coming up as a rookie and making this big of an impact doesn't feel like something they will recognize. Keep in mind, these are the same people that never unanimously vote in deserving players into the Hall of Fame. I do still think there is some value with Skenes at +500 as this might be the highest he ever has again. If he wins this year, I have to imagine he opens around +350 for the award next year. There are no odds listed for Skenes on the MVP award, and that's probably because he won't win it. The truth is, I think he should at least be on the board. If the Pirates find a way into the playoffs, his callup and dominance will likely be the thing everyone points to. However, pitchers rarely win the award. And, if I'm skeptical of voters giving him the Cy Young, they almost certainly won't give him the MVP. 

The bottom line here is if you think Skenes is going to win the Cy Young, now is the last real chance to bet him. The only other time will be if and when he has a poor start. Those don't look like they are even possible right now. You could run into a big slump from the Pirates and he then gets shut down for next season which is also a risk for him losing. At this point the value is as close to gone as possible, but this would be the last time worth betting on him. 

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