ESPN Analytics Is Trending Because It Is Dumb

Listen, I'm down-money betting on the NBA in 2022-23. It's a bummer because I crushed the NBA the past three seasons. But, hey, if I worked in the ESPN Analytics department I'd probably be homeless today.

I don't know who is running ESPN Analytics but they should take a breather and fix its models. Maybe it's the same people that predict U.S. elections but some of the probabilities being calculated by ESPN Analytics are frankly dumbfounding.

The Miami Heat put the Boston Celtics in a 0-2 hole Friday in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals. Afterward, DraftKings Sportsbooks made the Heat the big favorite to advance to the NBA Finals at -170.

However, those numbers don't jive with ESPN Analytics ...

The implied win probability of Miami's -170 series odds to eliminate Boston is 63.0%. Essentially, ESPN Analytics thinks the Celtics should be roughly -170 to make the NBA Finals. This is despite losing the first two games at home.

ESPN Analytics should start a sportsbook

Even ESPN's social media crew thinks the Analytics department is tripping. Look at the photo they used in the Tweet above. It's the same look Heat wing Jimmy Butler gave the Boston crowd when Celtics backup F Grant Williams tried to guard him.

I guess it makes sense for ESPN to hold the line with its love for the Celtics. Those chuckleheads gave Boston a 97% chance of beating the Heat pre-series. Whereas DraftKings priced the Celtics at -525 pre-series (84.0% win probability).

The greatest thing to happen for sports bettors would be if ESPN opened a sportsbook. Lines would be around the corner for those betting windows and the servers for their sports betting app would crash.

Screenshot of the @RotoGrinders reply to ESPN's Heat-Celtics series odds from its Analytics department.