Easter Should Bring Eggs On Scoreboard

Padres vs. Astros, 7:00 ET

Happy Easter to all those who celebrate, and to those who don't I hope you're having a good day too. The Easter bunny shouldn't discriminate. While you're checking your Easter baskets and filling up on food, I've been in the lab trying to figure out the right play to add to our nest egg for Sunday Night Baseball. With that in mind, my play tonight is between the Padres and the Astros.

The Padres are off to the start that we thought we would get from the Padres for multiple years. This team had a bit of a transformation or something in roughly the middle of the season. They found a way to start stacking up wins that helped get them into the playoffs. For years they were getting a lot of big name players, it seemed like they had five or six shortstops and were trying to put them in every position on the field. For whatever reason, it didn't work. Since then, they have done a significantly better job and are 10 games over .500 to start the year. Maybe it helped that they were at home for a large portion of that as they are just average at this point on the road. They turn the ball over to Dylan Cease today with a 1-1 record, 6.64 ERA, and a 1.52 WHIP. If those numbers seem off for Cease, it is because they are. He does feel like a guy that needs to kind of warm up for the season. The reality is that Cease had the worst start of his career against the Athletics (the last time I bet on him). He allowed nine earned runs in that games in four innings. In his other 16.1 innings this season, he has allowed just six earned runs. He has been lights out against the Astros, holding them to a .125 batting average in his career.

Padres RHP Dylan Cease pitches in the first inning vs. the New York Yankees at Petco Park in San Diego. (Chadd Cady-USA TODAY Sports)

The Astros are kind of on the downward trajectory that the Padres were a few years ago. They are in a period where they have to figure things out. They still have Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, but their other big names are all gone and their championship window is probably closed. I know they got a lot of flack for cheating, but those days are long gone now and this team is more likely to struggle than it is to make a run. They do get a chance to have their (arguably) best starter on their roster, Framber Valdez take the ball tonight. Valdez is a guy who set the record for quality starts a couple of years ago. He has two of those this season. He also has two brutal ones. In two games against the Giants and Cardinals, he went 9 innings and allowed 12 earned runs. In 13 innings against the Mariners and Mets, he allowed 0 runs. When he is on, he is great, when he is off, he is really bad. His history against the Padres is decent, holding them to 14 hits in 58 at-bats.

The starters in this game have shutout potential every time they take the mound, but I think it is clear which one has a better history against their opponent. Cease has been very good against the Astros. I'm not overly confident that the Padres will just rack up the hits against Valdez. Instead of taking a side, I think it makes more sense to play the under in this game.

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