Early Super Bowl LIX Best Bets From Handicapper With 61% Win Rate In 2023
The Kansas City Chiefs just won their 2nd consecutive Super Bowl and we've officially entered the Patrick Mahomes Era. Technically, it probably started once Tom Brady retired at the end of last season. However, it unquestionably started once Mahomes led KC to a 26-22 overtime victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.
Despite Mahomes being the King of the Hill, surprisingly, the Chiefs aren't the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX. Instead, the losers of Super Bowl 2024, the 49ers, are favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy next season at +550 odds. Kansas City is right behind them at +650 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Firstly, San Francisco at 5.5-to-1 is a sucker bet. One of the universal laws in the NFL is "Losers of the Super Bowl regress the following season". Usually, role players and assistant coaches get poached from Super Bowl rosters in the offseason. Plus, it's hard to "run the gauntlet" for two straight seasons in the NFL.
Granted, the last three Super Bowl losers (Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals, and Chiefs) all made the playoffs the year after. Yet, the Niners went 6-10 in 2020 after losing Super Bowl LV to the Chiefs. The picks below aren't best bets but leans because I tend to wait until the regular-season rosters are finalized after the preseason.
Like this year, I'm feeling a rematch for Super Bowl LIX. Two of my picks met a couple of years ago in the Big Game and the other is a 55-to-1 longshot.
Spoiler Alert: I'm feeling a 2nd consecutive rematch of a recent Super Bowl next season for my …
Early Super Bowl LIX Looks
Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)
Before Joe Burrow's season was cut short by an injury in Week 11, the Bengals looked like a Super Bowl favorite. Cincinnati won back-to-back games over the 49ers 31-17 and the Buffalo Bills 24-18 in Weeks 8-9. Both Buffalo and San Francisco have top-five odds to win Super Bowl LIX, ahead of Cincy. Even when Burrow went out, the Bengals won games because of their deep roster and good coaching staff.
(Albert Cesare/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Also, Cincinnati can answer "Yes" to the NFL's most important question: Can you beat Mahomes and the Chiefs? They beat Kansas City 27-24 at Arrowhead in the AFC championship en route to a Super Bowl 2021 appearance. Burrow is 3-1 overall and vs. the spread in his career against Mahomes. He didn't get lucky or "game-managing" in those victories. Burrow is averaging 313.0 passing yards per game in his career vs. Kansas City with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
_____________________________
Los Angeles Rams (+3500)
Honestly, I think the Rams would've snuck into the Super Bowl if they beat the Detroit Lions in the 2024 NFC Wild Card round. Los Angeles out-gained Detroit by 91 yards but lost a 24-23 coin-flip. This was supposed to be a down year for the Rams. They had +8000 odds to win Super Bowl LVIII entering last season.
That said, Rams QB Matthew Stafford and All-Pro Aaron Donald proved they still have some left in the tank. Rams WR, and 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Cooper Kupp will be healthy to start the season. Los Angeles breakout rookie WR Puka Nacua could improve in his second NFL season.
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Rams have a 1st-round draft pick for the 1st time since hiring head coach Sean McVay in 2017. McVay has proven he can take a limited roster to the playoffs. Los Angeles can add depth to its offensive line and defense around its superstar players.
Lastly, Stafford might be the best quarterback in the NFC. In the AFC, you have to go through Mahomes, Burrow, Bills QB Josh Allen, Baltimore Ravens QB, and NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson, and Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Stafford is the only QB to win a Super Bowl since 2018, besides Tom Brady and Mahomes.
_____________________________
Minnesota Vikings (+5500)
The NFC North is going from one of the weaker divisions in the NFL to one of the toughest year over year. But, the Vikings were 4-4 and on track to make the postseason before QB Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending injury. Regardless, they have an elite offensive line, a fantastic WR duo (Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison), and a top-five tight end (T.J. Hockenson).
(Brad Rempel - USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, Cousins could be the best or 2nd-best QB in the NFC behind Stafford. Despite playing one of the hardest schedules in the NFL through the 1st eight weeks, he had a 103.8 QB Rating with 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Between another year with Flores scheming up the defense and Cousins being back under center, the Vikings could make a Super Bowl LIX appearance.
Finally, Minnesota was 13-4 in 2022 under then-1st-year head coach Kevin O'Connell and was projected to take a step back in 2023. Its defense was a weak spot but that changed after hiring defensive coordinator Brian Flores before last season. The Vikings went from allowing 25.1 points per game (PPG) in 2022 to 21.3 PPG in 2023.
_____________________________