Eagles-Buccaneers Will Be A 'Rock-Fight' Monday, Bet Accordingly
Everyone is off the Philadelphia Eagles bandwagon, especially Eagles fans. But, there's a chance Philly's defense matches up well with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Eagles-Buccaneers is a rematch of the Week 3 Monday Night Football game where Philadelphia dominated Tampa Bay in a 25-11 rout.
The Eagles held the Buccaneers to season lows in total yards (174) and 1st downs (12). It was by far the best performance by Philly's defense all season. The Eagles rank 30th in defensive EPA/play and 28th in success rate.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield talk postgame at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. (Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
What's scary about that performance is Philadelphia gave up 382 total yards to the garbage New England Patriots offense in the season opener. If Patriots QB Mac Jones can move the ball on the Eagles, Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield should be able to as well.
I successfully bet UNDER 45 in the 1st Eagles-Buccaneers meeting this season. However, both offenses were far healthier than they will be Monday. Philly QB Jalen Hurts has an injury to his throwing hand. Eagles WR A.J. Brown is out and Baker is dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
For the record, I'd lay the points with Philly if I were to pick a side. Tampa is becoming a public 'dog, which often to get slaughtered by sportsbooks. It's rare for the House to be rooting for the better team since the public loves betting favorites.
That said, the UNDER 43.5 (-110) is a better look in this game for a bevy of reasons. On top of Philly missing its deep threat, Hurts not throwing the ball all week in practice, and Mayfield being banged-up, there are trendy reasons for betting the Under.
Philadelphia is 2-7 Over/Under (O/U) in road games with a -3.7 O/U differential. Tampa is 2-6 O/U in home games with a -6.1 O/U margin. Monday Night Football is 5-14 O/U with a -4.0 O/U differential this season.
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Also, both teams have a negative "Pass Rate Over Expectation", per Nfeloapp.com, plus neither should be able to run the ball Monday. For instance, Tampa Bay's defense is 7th in opponent's yards per rush (3.8) but ranks dead-last offensively (3.4).
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield scrambles out of the pocket against the Philadelphia Eagles at Raymond James Stadium. (Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Furthermore, both team can keep the offenses on the field while struggling to finish off drives. The Eagles are 3rd in 3rd-down conversion rate and the Buccaneers are 9th. But, Tampa Bay is 30th in red-zone scoring and 3rd in defensive red-zone scoring.
Lastly, this is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market for the total. Per Pregame.com, a slight majority of the bets are on the Over whereas a little more money is on the UNDER. Oddsmakers are reacting to the Under money by lowering the total from a 44-point opener down to the current number.