Doug Pederson Is A Better NFL Coach Than Kyle Shanahan: Bet Jaguars Over 49ers In Week 10
That's right, I said it. The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) have an edge in coaching when they host the San Francisco 49ers (5-3) at EverBank Stadium Sunday in NFL Week 10. Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan have seven seasons under their belts.
Pederson has a 57-47-1 career record in the regular season and Shanahan is 57-49. Shanahan lost his only Super Bowl (LIV) 31-20 to the Kansas City Chiefs as San Francisco's coach. Pederson won Super Bowl LII while coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, beating the New England Patriots 41-33.
Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Pederson talks with QB Trevor Lawrence during a game vs. the Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
He coached up Eagles 2nd-string QB Nick Foles to an all-time Super Bowl performance against a Bill Belichick defense. Furthermore, Pederson has won playoff games with two different NFL franchises in both conferences.
Trevor Lawrence had a terrible rookie season before Jacksonville hired Pederson. NFL talking heads jumped the snap and were calling Lawrence a "bust.” But, under Pederson, Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars Week 10
Betting odds for the San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 10 as of 10:45 a.m. ET Thursday, Nov. 9th.
My biggest concern about my bet on Jacksonville is I'm buying high on the Jaguars and selling low on the Niners. Jacksonville is on a 5-game winning and covering streak. Whereas San Francisco is on a 3-game losing skid and have scored exactly 17 points in all three.
That said, the market is still too high on the 49ers, the Jaguars have the better QB-coach combo, and Jacksonville's defense is underrated. San Francisco has played a cupcake schedule compared to the Jaguars thus far.
Per FTNFantasy.com, Jacksonville's "past schedule" ranks 6th in the NFL and San Francisco's is 25th. That's the new site for famous NFL statistician Aaron Schatz and his proprietary "DVOA". The Niners lost 19-17 to the Cleveland Browns with backup QB P.J. Walker under center.
The Jaguars are one of the few teams that have enough talent on defense to matchup with the 49ers. Jacksonville has Pro Bowl-caliber players on all three levels including pass rusher Josh Allen, LB Foyesade Oluokun, and CB Tyson Campbell.
Jaguars LB Foyesade Oluokun celebrates with teammates after returning an interception for a TD vs. the Saints at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
San Francisco LT Trent Williams has missed the last two games and didn't practice Wednesday. I'd argue Williams is the Niners' most important offensive player. Williams is a future Hall of Famer and all three starters on the right side of San Francisco's offensive line have a below-average grade at Pro Football Focus.
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Also, the Jaguars have more ways to win and have shown they can rally from behind. Jacksonville fell in a 27-0 hole in the 1st-half of its 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2023 AFC Wild Card round. The Jaguars had a double-digit comeback win vs. the Dallas Cowboys last year as well.
The 49ers on the other hand are 1-31 when trailing 3+ points entering the 4th quarter under Shanahan and 0-37 down 8 or more points. San Francisco 2nd-year QB Brock Purdy has just one 4th quarter comeback and one game-winning drive in his 13 career regular-season starts.
Finally, this is a better spot for Jacksonville and the sharps know it. Since 2022, the Jaguars are 5-1 overall and vs. the spread as home 'dogs in the regular season and playoffs. Plus, per Pro Football Focus, more bets are on the 49ers but more money is on the Jags.
My prediction: Jaguars 25, 49ers 21
Bet slip from PointsBet for the San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10.