Dolphins Are Missing Too Many Players To Defeat Defending Champion Chiefs
Inform your older relatives, this is the "Peacock Game" of NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. The reigning Super Bowl, and AFC West champion, Kansas City Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins Saturday at 8 p.m. ET. Final reminder: This game is streaming on NBC's Peacock App.
These teams already played earlier this season in one of the Germany games. The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 in Week 9 and Kansas City covered as -1.5 favorites. In their AFC Wild Card round rematch, the Chiefs are -4.5 favorites across the board with a 44.5-point total.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes carries the ball with Miami Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey trying to tackle him during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park in Munich, Germany. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Yet, Miami was at full-strength for that Germany game. Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey was back on the field. Plus, Miami WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were 100%. Now, the Dolphins are the most banged-up team entering the postseason.
Hill, Waddle and Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert are dinged up. Plus, Miami pass rushers Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips, and Andrew Van Ginkel are all on the IR. The tackles are the weak part of Kansas City's offensive line. Without those pass rushers, the Dolphins won't be able to exploit that weakness.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR DOLPHINS – CHIEFS PLAYOFF GAME IN KANSAS CITY IS BEYOND MISERABLE, BUT ‘FINS MAY WANT TO HOPE FOR SNOW
Given Miami's injury issues, KC's championship pedigree, and the weather forecast, the Chiefs should be closer to touchdown-favorites Saturday. More importantly, Kansas City has the better quarterback, coach, defense, and special teams.
Patrick Mahomes is playing his 15th playoff game. Besides three Super Bowl appearances, all have them have been at home. On the other hand, this will be Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa's postseason debut. Typically, QBs lose their 1st playoff games and going to KC is a tough 1st playoff game.
Kansas City Chiefs DE George Karlaftis pressures Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa in the NFL Week 9 at Deutsche Bank Park. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the public is down on the Chiefs because they haven't played a good game since October. But, I truly believe Kansas City head coach Andy Reid "saves the good plays" for the postseason. Granted, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has lost a step and KC's WR corp sucks.
However, I trust Mahomes and Co. to make plays when they need them. I cannot say the same for Tua and the Dolphins. The Chiefs lead the NFL in sack rate and Miami's offensive line is 31st in ESPN's pass-block win rate. So there's a good chance Kansas City is in Tua's face all night Saturday.
LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast: NFL Super Wild Card Weekend 2024 Betting Breakdown
Furthermore, special teams become more important in bad-weather games. Per Pro Football Focus, Kansas City's special teams ranks 4th and Miami is 29th. Remember, Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney 65-yard 4th-quarter punt return was one of the biggest plays in the Super Bowl last year.
Lastly, Kansas City is better in high-leverage situations, which usually decides these playoff games. For example, KC's defense is 10th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed and 8th in opponent's red-zone scoring. Whereas Miami's defense is 20th in opponent's 3rd-down conversion rate and 28th in red-zone scoring rate allowed.