Diamondbacks Can Beat Braves Behind Gallen

Braves vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

There aren't a ton of team this season that I feel like I've had a great read on. Some of them are teams that I've done very well with in the past, and others are teams that I'm trying to figure out based on data or situations, or both. Every year there is at least one team that I eventually avoid because I just can't get their games right. With that warning in place, I'll let you know I haven't had a good read on the Diamondbacks and they host the Braves tonight. 

The Braves are off to a very rough start, especially considering their lofty expectations. Atlanta two years ago was ridiculously good with basically every player hitting above expectations. It seemed like they had nine guys in the lineup with 30+ homers. Last year they had the injury bug bite them and they still managed to be competitive. It helped the Marcell Ozuna had a MVP-caliber season, and their pitching staff was deep enough. These things don't seem to be the case this year, even though the team is now healthy again (Ozuna is still doing well). One guy that rejuvenated his career in Atlanta was tonight's starter, Chris Sale. Sale is 0-2 for the season with a 6.17 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. So, obviously, his success is also not there this year, yet. Diamondbacks hitters outside of Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel haven't faced Sale much. 

Jun 14, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker (43) in the dugout against the Tampa Bay Rays in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Diamondbacks are a team that I was so good with for the past two years, but this season I've lost every game that I've played on them. It is possible the market has caught up or I am picking bad spots to back them. The other potential thing is that maybe the success that the team had and I was leveraging is now gone. They are in the most competitive division in baseball (sure you can argue for the AL East if you'd like). The offense is still doing well and Corbin Carroll looks like he could be starting an MVP season. Tonight they send out Zac Gallen a guy that has been money in the bank for me for a couple of years now. Gallen isn't looking very good right now with a 1-3 record and a 5.60 ERA. Even his WHIP is pretty high at 1.43. Bravees hitters have been fine against him in the past with a .256 batting average.

Two big name pitchers on the mound make for what could be a very interesting game. At their peaks, taking the over would be nonsense. Right now, neither of them are missing too many bats. Gallen has typically been a better home pitcher than on the road. I think it makes sense to back him here and get some value since they have to face Sale. Take the Diamondbacks.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024