Detroit Lions At Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 NFL Kickoff Game Odds, Bets
Professional tackle football returns Thursday with the 2023 NFL Kickoff Game. The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the preseason NFC North favorite, Detroit Lions, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 1.
After news broke Tuesday that Chiefs All-Pro TE Travis Kelce's Week 1 status is in doubt after injuring his knee in practice, their odds fell from -6.5 to the current odds of -4.5. Kansas City Pro Bowl pass rusher Chris Jones may hold out of Thursday's game amid contract negotiations with the team.
Regardless, Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid are monsters in Week 1. They are 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 since Mahomes became KC's starter in 2018. The Chiefs are +13.0 SU and +8.4 ATS in those games. They beat the Houston Texans 34-20 in NFL's 2020 Kickoff Game.
As crazy as this sounds, the Lions were one of the most talked about teams this offseason. From Week 9 on last season, Detroit was 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS. The Lions finished 9-8 and nearly snuck into the playoffs in 2022.
Lions QB Jared Goff calls out a play adjustment vs. the Chicago Bears at Ford Field on January 01, 2023 in Detroit. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
The key to the Lions' turnaround was their offense. Detroit were 5th in points per game last season. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson getting an offense led by QB Jared Goff to be top-five in scoring will land Johnson a head coaching gig soon.
Lions at Chiefs Week 1 odds
Ten minutes before the Kelce news broke, I was texting OutKick NFL analyst Dan Zaksheske: "The Lions +6.5 will cover Thursday". Now that Detroit is only getting +4.5, I don't think I'll be able to pull the trigger.
But, the Chiefs don't cover big spreads. Kansas City is 21-3 SU and 10-14 ATS as home favorites of -5 or more over the past three seasons. Also, the Lions are 19-9 ATS as underdogs since head coach Dan Campbell took over in 2021.
More importantly, the losses of Kelce and Jones are worth at least 2.0 points to the line. The Chiefs are a "stars and scrubs" team. Kelce and Jones are superstars. Outside of Kelce, Mahomes doesn't have any Pro Bowl-caliber weapons and KC doesn't have a pass rush without Jones.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce celebrate a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Tammy Ljungblad/Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
However, my problem is neither Kelce nor Jones have been officially ruled out as of Wednesday. What if they both play in Week 1? Kansas City's odds shoot back up to -6.5 and we have a "stale number". So I'm not betting either team's spread.
Instead, I'm going to BET 0.5 UNITS (u) on UNDER 52.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook. In the regular season, the Chiefs are 8-14-1 Over/Under (O/U) as home favorites since 2020. Over the past two seasons, the Lions are 6-10 O/U as road 'dogs.
Kelce's injury should ground some of KC's aerial attack and Detroit's offensive line will bully the Chiefs sans Jones. Both teams will try to establish the run, which eats up clock and is go for Unders.
Furthermore, the Lions drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick and are going to show off their new weapon. Kansas City has a sneaky good secondary and Detroit's WR corp is mediocre.
Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs runs up the field in a NFL preseason game vs. the New York Giants at Ford Field. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
According to all the available betting splits, the public is hammering the Over. Yet the total has been lowered from 53.5 on the consensus market to a flat-52 at some sportsbooks.
Plus, it just makes sense to fade the public here. Detroit had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season and Mahomes is the best in the business. No one is betting the Under in Lions-Chiefs Thursday.
There's another bet I like in this game: 0.5u on CHIEFS 3rd-Quarter Moneyline (-144), also at FanDuel. KC has outscored opponents 54-0 in the 3rd quarter in its past five Week 1 games.
Since 2020, the Chiefs are +2.6 SU in the 3rd quarter of any game, which is their biggest of all four quarters. Last season, the Lions had a +2.0 first-quarter margin. But, they were -2.4 SU in the 3rd quarter last year.
Mahomes has at least a dozen comebacks from down double digits in his career. The Chiefs typically come out sluggish then make in-game adjustments and run their opponents down. Thursday will be no different.