As Dan Campbell Suggested, Detroit Lions Will Underperform Expectations In 2024

NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. Check out my AFC South, NFC South, and AFC North team-by-team previews. I'm beginning the NFC North look-ahead with the 2023 division champion Detroit Lions. 

After winning their division and a playoff game for the first time since the Barry Sanders days (1991), the Lions are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Head coach Dan Campbell has to be the biggest thing in Motown since Marvin Gaye. He inherited a dumpster fire in 2021 and got Detroit on the doorstep of its first-ever Super Bowl appearance last year. 

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy celebrates after winning the 2023-24 NFC Championship vs. the Detroit Lions at Levi's Stadium in California. (Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports)

In 2023, Detroit won the NFC North with a 12-5 campaign. The Lions held a 17-point lead at halftime of their 34-31 loss in the NFC title game over the San Francisco 49ers. Campbell retained his coordinators this offseason, a rarity for a 12-win team. Detroit "runs it back" with mostly the same offense from last year, and a couple of additions to premium defensive positions. 

Lions QB, and Los Angeles Rams' throw-in for the Matt Stafford trade, Jared Goff is a sleeper for 2024 NFL MVP (+2500). Detroit has the best offensive line in the NFL, a top-10 receiver (WR Amon-Ra St. Brown), a top-five tight end (Sam LaPorta), and a dual-threat running back (RB Jahmyr Gibbs). LaPorta and Gibbs were rookies last year and should be better this season.

Technically, the Lions have a "first-place schedule" in 2024, but it's beatable. Goff's biggest bugaboo is playing outdoors in winter conditions. That said, they will play 14 indoor games this season and its only "bad weather" game is at the Chicago Bears in Week 16. With this in mind, Detroit should be better in 2024, right? 

Well, not so fast. 

Detroit Lions 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 1:30 p.m. ET Monday, August 19. 

• Super Bowl: +1200
• Conference: +550
• Division: +130
• Playoffs: Yes (-265), No (+210)
• 10.5 Wins:  Over (-132), Under (+108)

Look, it's tough talking myself into fading the Lions this season. Their defense is better, on paper. Campbell is a fantastic coach and one of the best motivators in the league. Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be an NFL head coach whenever he accepts an offer. Yet, as Campbell said in his post-NFC title game press conference, it's tough to repeat success in the NFL. 

You can bank on five playoff teams from last season missing the postseason next year in the NFL. It happens every season for various reasons, including the ones mentioned by Campbell in the video above. The Lions are going from the "hunter" to the "hunted" and two NFC North teams (the Packers and Chicago Bears) will be better this season. 

READ: Hulk Hogan Cuts Fired Up Promo For The Lions, Dan Campbell Has Awesome Reaction

Also, besides a fluky Week 1 win over the Kansas City Chiefs without Travis Kelce and All-Pro DT Chris Jones, and Green Bay in Week 4, Detroit didn't beat a single playoff team last year. The Lions have eight games vs. 2023 playoff teams this season. They got waxed by the Baltimore Ravens 38-6, lost at home to the Packers Thanksgiving, and lost at the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17. 

Lions QB Jared Goff looks drops back to pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the 2024 NFC Wild Card Game at Ford Field in Detroit. (Eric Seals/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Furthermore, Detroit had 10.0 expected wins in 2023 and was 6-3 in one-score games. The Lions seemingly converted every fourth-down and trick play Campbell dialed up. This point is sort of void of analysis, but Detroit won't get that lucky again in 2024. That's just how the NFL works. 

The market leans toward the Lions winning 11 games next season. However, I cannot back a team without a top-10 quarterback to have double-digit wins. Goff has turned his career around in Detroit. Nonetheless, he is the third-best quarterback in the NFC North and regression is coming from Goff and the Lions next year. 

Detroit Lions 2024 Projection: 8-9 for third in the NFC Nouth 

_____________________________ 

‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Detroit Lions: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+1400)

If I'm wrong about Detroit, it'll be because the defense turns into a top-10 unit. Even if that doesn't happen, Hutchinson could still win Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) because he's a stud. In 2023, Hutchinson had 11.5 sacks, had the second-most pressures (101), per Pro Football Focus, and tied for the third most quarterback hits (33). 

Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson chases down Packers QB Jordan Love for a sack at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)

He has the sixth-best odds to win DPOY at FanDuel behind Cowboys' Micah Parsons (+500), Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett (+600), Pittsburgh Steelers' T.J. Watt (+750), Las Vegas Raiders' Maxx Crosby (+1000) and Niners' Nick Bosa (+1000). But, Hutchinson will be as good as those guys next year and his true odds should be closer to +800. 

Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account 

• Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (+2700)
• Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South (+1100)
• Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to throw for 4,000+ yards (+165)
• Houston Texans WR Nico Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+2900)
• 3-team division-winning parlay: Panthers, Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns (+31400)
• Cleveland Browns ‘Ladder’ Futures: Super Bowl (+3500), AFC (+2200), and AFC North (+600)
• Pittsburgh Steelers to have the worst regular-season record in 2024 (+3100)
• Cincinnati Bengals' Zac Taylor to win 2024 NFL Coach of the Year (+3000)
• Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+1400)

_____________________________ 

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.