Detroit Can End 1st Half With Win Over Senators

Senators vs. Red Wings, 7:00 ET

Have you ever seen the Simpsons episode "Cape Feare"? It is the second episode of season five. There are two scenes in this episode that I compare to this hockey season to when it comes to betting. The first is Homer being told he will now be known as Homer Thompson. He just doesn't get it. They look him dead in the eyes and tell him "When I step on your foot and say 'Hello Mr. Thompson' you smile and nod." After confirming he understands, he whispers to the other agent "I think he's talking to you." How does that equate to hockey? Well, this season, I just don't get it. The second scene is when Sideshow Bob gets off the bottom of the car after following the Simpsons to their new town. He then proceeds to step on rake after rake and they hit him in the face. That's pretty much what happens to me on a nightly basis. Still, I'm coming back for more and hoping to dodge the rake as I have a play in the Senators vs. Red Wings.

The Senators are a team that burned me earlier in the week. I'm back for more. What can I say, I am a glutton for punishment. That game saw the Predators jump out to a three-goal lead in the first period and then give up three in the second period. Nothing happened in the third period but the Senators pulled it out in overtime. Now they play once again in the last game before the All-Star Break. They are playing fairly well right now, but not a great team. They are worse on the road with a 6-13-0 record. To their credit, they did win two straight on the road over the Flyers and Canadiens, but that was after losing five straight on a Canada/West Coast trip. Joonas Korpsialo is expected to once again be in the net tonight. This will be his fourth time facing the Wings this season. In the first game he allowed five goals on just 23 shots. In the second and third game, he got a bit of vengeance as they at least took home victories. He only stopped 37 of 41 shots in the second game, but the Senators pulled it out in overtime. In their first road game against Detroit, another Senators win, he was able to stop 30 of 31 shots. He didn't start the game against Nashville, but he was able to hold the Predators scoreless in the 43 minutes he spent on the ice.

OTTAWA, CANADA - APRIL 8: Shane Pinto #57 of the Ottawa Senators skates against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Canadian Tire Centre on April 8, 2023 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by André Ringuette/NHLI via Getty Images)

Detroit comes into this game having won two straight on their five-game homestand and looking to close it out with another victory. For the season, they are 26-18-5 and 14-8-4 at home. Something I find interesting about the Red Wings is that they are scoring 3.51 goals per game on just 29 shots per game, but they are allowing 3.22 goals per game on 32 shots. The Senators are the opposite - they are outshooting their opponent, but they are allowing more goals per game than they are scoring. Detroit has a decent offense, but they are rather inconsistent. They don't really have that one dominant player who racks up points and disrupts the opponent's game plan. Instead, they have a more balanced approach and that can make it difficult to have to cover everyone on the ice. Alex Lyon will be in the net for the Red Wings and he has had a pretty strong month of January. The team is 8-3 in his games this month and he has allowed just 2.51 goals per game. He did face the Senators once this season, and it was the worst loss of the three games as he allowed four goals on 25 shots in just 40 minutes.

I like the Red Wings to win this game. They don't have their full offensive firepower as Patrick Kane is out right now, but they played the beginning portion of the year without him. I like the way Lyon is playing and I don't like that the Senators are on the road just before the All-Star Break it is hard to focus on the game when you know you're going to be off for a week after. I get that the same thing impacts Detroit, but at least they are already at home. I'll take the Red Wings in this one at -125.

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