deGrom Returns Tonight, Fade Or Follow?

Rangers vs. Mariners, 10:10 ET

The baseball season is winding down and we have just a few weeks left until the regular season is over. Before we get there, let's take a little trip to explain what is left to be decided in the American League. In the AL East, we are going to have the Yankees and Orioles make the playoffs, but the division winner is still to be determined. In the Central, Cleveland will likely take the division, but there is a possibility that the Royals or Twins could grab it. The Wild Card race starts shaping up there. The Tigers are 3.5 games behind the Royals and Twins in the Wild Card race and the Red Sox are 4.5 games back there as well. The AL West, which has two teams in tonight's game, is likely to be won by the Astros. The Rangers are not quite out of the race at 7.5 games back in the Wild Card, but the Mariners are closer at 4.5 back, and the same distance back in the division race. 

The Rangers never quite got over the hump with their injuries and mixture of pitchers coming in and out of the rotation. To blame everything on injuries isn't quite fair considering that the batting average of the club is at .238. It isn't terrible, but there are certainly some opportunities for improvement, and more importantly, the offense isn't as productive as last season. Corey Seager had a nice year, but he is now out for the season. Adolis Garcia is a good hitter, but is having a down year both in average and home runs. Back to the pitching, Max Scherzer has only made eight starts for the team this season, and while a few were quality outings, the volume simply isn't enough. Today, they get Jacob deGrom coming back for the team. He has made a total of six starts for the Rangers in his two years as part of the team. Tonight is his first outing since April of 28th of 2023. We all know deGrom's pedigree so it is hard to say that you should fade him here, but there has to be a bit of concern considering he is making his first start in such a long time. Over the course of his career, the Mariners are 19-for-69 against him with four homers, five doubles, and a triple. 

May 5, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) is congratulated by Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) after hitting a solo home run against the Houston Astros during the ninth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners have to do something to address the offense in the offseason. There is a possibility that the team could find a way to make it into the postseason this year, but they don't have a good enough offense to make any real noise anyway. They have the lowest batting average in all of baseball and have more strikeouts than any other team. What they do have is a phenomenal pitching staff. For the season, the team has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. That means that teams are averaging a walk or hit basically just one per inning against the Mariners staff. They also have an opponent batting average of just .222 against them. Seems like such a waste to have this great of a pitching staff coupled with this terrible of an offense. Tonight, it isn't officially listed on sportsbooks, but the expectation is that Emerson Hancock will make the start. Hancock is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. His last appearance for the Mariners was a four-inning outing in July. This will be his 10th start of the season. He has made four quality starts this season, but with so much space between starts, it is hard to imagine he goes deep into tonights game. 

I know this will be a tough game for both teams as deGrom tries to regain form before the Rangers get into the offseason to regroup. The books seem to think that deGrom will be just fine as the Rangers are -154 on the moneyline for the first five innings and -130 for the full game. I'm going to take the Mariners for the full game though. Even with a brutal offense, I don't expect deGrom to be sharp. Even if he is, he won't pitch much more than three to five innings. Back the Mariners in this game. 

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