Defenses May Have Edge In This One

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina, 3:30 ET

With playoff baseball, a hot streak in the NFL, the NBA coming back, WNBA playoffs, and hockey starting, there is no lack of sports to bet on. This didn't even mention the fact that we get College Football three days a week, and potentially even more often. For the season, it has been a mixed bag of results on the college grid iron, but I'm hopeful that we can get some victories stacked up in the coming weeks. I'm looking to grab a victory here in a game between Ole Miss and South Carolina as they play in Columbia, South Carolina.

Ole Miss comes into the season with a 4-1 record and is ranked as the 12th-best team in the country. They are coming off of a loss that probably shouldn't have been a loss. To start the season, they looked like an offensive juggernaut and a defensively stout team. They had 220 points in their first four games and allowed just 22 points to opponents. Those first four games weren't against great opponents. The only team that I think is reasonably good is Wake Forrest and it was their first road game of the season. Their most recent game was against Kentucky and they couldn't get the high-powered offense in gear. Jaxon Dart didn't look bad in the game, he had a good enough performance with 18 completions on 27 attempts for 261 yards and a touchdown. After a touchdown to start the game they ended up punting their next three possessions of the first half. After getting a field goal to start the third quarter, they fumbled the ball, but ultimately it didn't cost them points defensively. The team missed a game-tying field goal late in the fourth quarter and ultimately that cost them the game as they didn't get the ball back afterwards. In this game the offense won't have things any easier as the Gamecocks have one of the best defenses in the game according to FPI's defensive efficiency. 

Sep 21, 2024; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer directs his team against the Akron Zips in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

South Carolina comes into this game with a 3-1 record and off of a bye week. The Gamecocks beat that same Kentucky team last that beat Ole Miss last week. In their game against Kentucky they won 31-6. I wouldn't say Kentucky is an offensive powerhouse, but South Carolina did a good job of keeping them off the scoreboard. The one loss that South Carolina has suffered was against LSU in a game they dropped 36-33. They only allowed 32 points in the other three games that they played. For the season, the offense of the Gamecocks is leaving a bit to be desired. The team, collectively, has five touchdowns and two interceptions. Most of their work comes from the ground game, but if they are going to be fairly one-dimensional as a team, they are going to struggle long-term. The team has rushed 185 times compared to throwing the ball 85 times this season. They have found the endzone 11 times on the ground which is encouraging for their success. In this game, this could be a huge concern as Ole Miss actually has the best rushing defense in the nation currently. Part of that is from the blowouts they had early in the season when opponents had to pass on them, but if South Carolina can't pass the ball, they are in trouble.

So what wins here? Does the Ole Miss team that has to face a tough defense win? Or, will South Carolina be able to attack Ole Miss through the air and find a way to capture the win at home? I think I might feel a bit better about this if Ole Miss was coming off of a win. I do think this is a tough call on the spread but lean toward Ole Miss winning it. I'm going to instead back the under in this game. I think the defenses will likely be the determining factor in this one. Back the under. 

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