Defending My PGA TOUR Title At VidantaWorld: 2025 Mexico Open Best Bets
Like last year, I need the 2025 Mexico Open to be a "get-right" spot for my PGA TOUR betting season. I was losing at a similar rate last year before Jake Knapp cashed a +4000 ticket for me by winning at VidantaWorld in 2024. This is the fourth season the Mexico Open has been on the PGA TOUR calendar.
The best players on TOUR are skipping this week to prepare for the upcoming Florida Swing, featuring two "signature events": The Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite this being one of the worst fields of any event this year, the bets won in the Mexico Open are still paid in dollars, not pesos.
Dollars or pesos, it doesn't matter. I just need some currency in my PGA TOUR 2025 bankroll, which is -18.43 units (u) entering the Mexico Open. I dumped 2.63u at The Genesis Invitational last week and none of my bets to win were in contention Sunday besides a live bet I added on Patrick Cantlay via X in the third round.
Mexico Open 2025 'Horses for the Course’
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com.
Alex Smalley (+3500)
Through the first two rounds of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Smalley was tied for second, two strokes behind the 54-hole leader and eventual champion, Thomas Detry. Smalley ended up finishing T21 after a third-round 73 (+2).
He was T16 at the Sony Open, 11th at The American Express, and missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open in his other three starts this season. These are encouraging results for tournaments with much stronger fields on tougher courses than the Mexico Open.
Alex Smalley is one of my picks to win the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta on the PGA TOUR. (Photo credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, the 28-year-old is fourth in my 40-round model at BetTheNumber.com, full of ball-striking stats because bombers win at Vidanta. Smalley is 11th in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT), 21st in driving distance, and third in Par 5 scoring.
Smalley has played well at these resort-style courses, including T6 last year in the Corales Puntacana Championship, T6 in the 2022 Mexico Open, and T2 at Corales in 2022. Lastly, Smalley is third in total SG average per start on the PGA TOUR this season and can break through for his first win like Knapp did last season.
BET 0.57u on Alex Smalley (+3500) to profit 20u
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Jake Knapp (+4000)
Since this year's Mexico Open field is easier than last year's, I have to bet Knapp at the same odds. In 2024, Tony Finau, Robert MacIntyre, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Pendrith, Jhonattan Vegas, and Thomas Detry were in the Mexico Open. Besides Finau, all those guys have won PGA TOUR events since, and thus the Mexico Open is beneath them.
The same analysis for betting Knapp last year applies this week. He's pounding the ball OTT and made the cut in five of his six starts in 2025. Last week, Knapp was T17 at The Genesis Invitational ("signature event") at Torrey Pines, one of the most difficult ball-striking courses on TOUR. Knapp was +2.4 SG: OTT and +2.7 SG: Approach (APP) at The Genesis.
Essentially, if Knapp can gain strokes on a field with the best players in the world, including Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, at Torrey Pines, he can light up Vidanta again this year.
BET 0.5u on Jake Knapp (+4000) to profit 20u
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Nicolai Højgaard (+4000)
This is the fourth season the Mexico Open has been an event on the PGA TOUR. Nicolai’s weakness — driving accuracy and around-the-green (ARG) play — won’t cost him at Vidanta. While his strengths — driving distance and long iron play — play well here. Despite having water and sand traps throughout the course, Vidanta’s main defense is its length.
Over the last 40 rounds, Nicolai is 19th in this field for driving distance, seventh in ball speed, and 15th in SG: APP, according to BetTheNumber.com. Also, the Dane is third in this field for APP shots from 200+ yards out and second in SG: Par 3 over the last 24 rounds, per Fantasy National, and there are five Par-3s at Vidanta.
He was T36 at Phoenix in his first PGA TOUR start this season. But, Højgaard was tied for seventh in SG: APP and 15th in SG: Putting in Phoenix, per Fantasy National, and hit the ball 7.4 yards further OTT than the field, according to DataGolf.com. His downfall was driving accuracy (-6% less accurate than the field) and chipping (-3.4 SG: ARG).
Finally, Nicolai is one of the few players in this field with true "win equity" and he has a better payout than a lot of guys who haven’t won sh*t. Højgaard is a 2023 Ryder Cupper and a three-time winner on the DP World Tour, including the 2023 DP World Tour Championship over Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy.
BET 0.5u on Nicolai Højgaard (+4000) to profit 20u
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Michael Thorbjornsen (+6000)
The 23-year-old is off to a terrible start in his first full season on the PGA TOUR. Thorbjornsen has two missed cuts at The American Express and Farmers and a T74 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Yet, I’m betting on the talent of Thorbjornsen, who was the valedictorian of the PGA TOUR University last season.
He is the second PGA TOUR University golfer to earn his full-time TOUR status; Ludvig Åberg, the 2025 Genesis Invitational champion, was the first. Thorbjornsen’s last win as an amateur was on the other side of Mexico last March in the Cabo Collegiate Invitational at the Twin Dolphin Club. I.e. he has previous success on a coastal Mexican course.
More importantly, the Stanford Cardinal’s game fits this course. Like the first three Mexico Open champions, Thorbjornsen nukes the ball OTT. Over the last 40 rounds, Thorbjornsen is eighth in this field for driving distance and 19th in ball speed, per BetTheNumber.com. He also has the best Par-3 scoring average over that span.
BET 0.33u on Michael Thorbjornsen (+6000) to profit 20u
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Antoine Rozner (+8000)
The Frenchman was second in SG: APP on the DP World Tour last season behind Fleetwood, a three-time European Ryder Cupper and 2024 Paris Olympics silver medalist. Rozner earned his full-time PGA TOUR card for 2025 by finishing in the top 10 of the DP World Tour standings last year.
His first two PGA TOUR starts this season are nothing to write home about: Missed the cut at the AmEx and was T48 at the Farmers. However, after the Farmers, Rozner was fourth at the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour earlier this month.
Also, Rozner has eight top-10 finishes in his last 25 starts, including a fourth at the Genesis Championship, T6 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and T3 at the DP World Tour Championship this past Fall.
Rozner regularly gains in distance OTT vs. the field on the DP World Tour and is one of the best iron players in golf. Even though the PGA TOUR is tougher, the Mexico Open is a softer field than many of the DP World Tour events he plays. Hence, this is a great number for Rozner, who does have five international wins.
BET 0.25u on Antoine Rozner (+8000) to profit 20u
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Mexico Open 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Nicolai Højgaard
My "Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup" entry has more missed cuts (three) than top-20s (two). Hence, I'm in 2,858th place out of 4,500 entries in this one-and-done league. Nicolai's game fits this course, and he has the biggest win (the 2023 DP World Tour Championship) of any player in this field.
Previous Picks
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0)
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640)
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0)
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714)
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.