Deciding The 2024 NFL Starting Quarterback Battles For Week 1
Raise your hand if you've heard "The NFL is a quarterback-driven league." Everyone's hands should be raised. Coaching staffs get fired and front offices are restructured when teams have the wrong guy under center. Between the 2024 NFL Draft and free agency, several teams are going in a different direction at quarterback.
After the "schedule release" show, quarterback battles are the most important storylines in the NFL until the regular season begins. Since you can bet on anything in sports nowadays, DraftKings is taking action on "Week 1 Starting QB" for several teams. Without further ado, let's pick some Week 1 starters.
NFL Week 1 Starting Quarterback Predictions
The odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, May 29 at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Denver Broncos
- Bo Nix (-425)
- Jarrett Stidham (+450)
- Zach Wilson (+1000)
Bo Nix could be a "coach killer." Granted, second-year Broncos head coach Sean Payton has a long leash because of his contract. But, Payton drafting Nix with the No. 12 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft was an epic reach. Most draft analysts didn't have Nix going in the first round. That said, Payton will try to prove naysayers wrong and force Nix down Denver sports fans' throats.
Denver Broncos QBs Jarrett Stidham and Bo Nix during 2024 OTAs at Centura Health Training Center in Englewood, Colorado. (Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)
While I'm 99% certain Nix won't be a starting NFL quarterback in three years, I'm 100% sure QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson aren't starters either. Stidham is 1-3 in his career and Wilson is 12-21. The Broncos are Stidham's third team in five career NFL seasons. Wilson was dishonorably discharged from the Jets this offseason after three miserable seasons in New York.
Pick: Bo Nix will be starting for the Denver Broncos in Week 1
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Las Vegas Raiders
- Gardner Minshew (-150)
- Aidan O'Connell (+110)
Aside from the quarterback, the Raiders have a lot of talent on offense. Las Vegas WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are a legit tandem. The Raiders used the No. 13 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on TE Brock Bowers. Pro Football Focus (PFF) named Raiders LT Kolton Miller "a top-10 left tackle in the NFL" this offseason.
Las Vegas journeyman backup QB Gardner Minshew will be breathing down O'Connell's neck this preseason. But, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce will give O'Connell a shot at securing the starting quarterback role early on. O'Connell had a better PFF grade in his rookie season last year than Minshew did while playing for the Indianapolis Colts.
Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers celebrates a touchdown with QB Aidan O'Connell vs. the Denver Broncos during the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, the same logic I used for Nix and Denver applies to Las Vegas and O'Connell. We know what Minshew is already and O'Connell could still develop into a legit starting quarterback. Albeit probably not, but crazier things happen in the NFL often. O'Connell will begin the season as the Raiders' starter and Pierce will replace him if things get ugly.
Pick: Aidan O'Connell will be starting for the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1
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Minnesota Vikings
- Sam Darnold (-200)
- J.J. McCarthy (+150)
The Vikings cannot waste time with McCarthy while he is on a rookie contract. Having a quarterback under his rookie contract is the second-best situation for a team behind having a Pro Bowl-caliber, franchise quarterback. Teams can spend money on skill-position players if they have a quarterback on a team-friendly deal.
In this case, Minnesota has an above-average offensive line, a top-five wideout, Justin Jefferson, a top-five tight end, T.J. Hockenson, and a top-10 running back, Aaron Jones. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the best in the NFL and head coach Kevin O'Connell seems like a quality play designer.
There is a world where J.J. McCarthy is the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Minnesota wins the NFC North, and hosts a playoff game next season. However, there is no world where the Vikings do this with Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback. Maybe Minshew or New England Patriots backup QB Jacoby Brissett could keep McCarthy on the sideline for Week 1, but not Darnold.
Pick: J.J. McCarthy will be starting for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1
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New England Patriots
- Jacoby Brissett (-300)
- Drake Maye (+225)
Brissett is the best backup among these teams with question marks at quarterback, but I don't see the point of starting him instead of Drake Maye in Week 1. Brissett was signed for less money than Minshew and Darnold, so there isn't a financial reason for starting him.
The AFC East is one of the toughest divisions in football and the Patriots don't have the roster to be in "win-now" mode. Maye was the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and why not let him learn on the job? Brissett winning a couple of games could hurt New England's draft position for 2025 and the Patriots need a multi-year rebuild.
Pick: Drake Maye will be starting for the New England Patriots in Week 1
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New York Giants
- Daniel Jones (-425)
- Drew Lock (+275)
Look, I'm a suffering Giants fan who knows QB Daniel Jones isn't the answer. However, I won't talk myself into QB Drew Lock being the solution. At least Jones was good enough to get a second contract. He won a playoff game for NYG in head coach Brian Daboll's first season in 2023. New York drafted a No. 1 WR with the sixth pick, LSU's Malik Nabers.
New York Giants QB Daniel Jones scrambles against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
The Giants are Lock's third team since getting drafted in 2019. Lock led the NFL with 15 interceptions over 13 games in his second season in 2020. Furthermore, Giants beat writers report that Jones has been throwing with "accuracy and velocity" and Lock is struggling in OTAs, per Giants Wire. Even if Jones is garbage, Lock isn't good enough to replace him.
Pick: Daniel Jones will be starting for the New York Giants in Week 1
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Pittsburgh Steelers
- Russell Wilson (-700)
- Justin Fields (+450)
If there is anyone who can fix Russell Wilson's career after his disastrous stint in Denver, it's Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin. Wilson's biggest criticism is that he is not a "locker room" guy and Tomlin has dealt with far worse "locker room" guys.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin walks on the field before the game vs. the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Wilson wasn't that bad last year. He had the third-best touchdown rate in 2023, ranked eighth in QB Rating, and was tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks with four. QB Justin Fields was 18th in touchdown rate, 22nd in QB Rating, and had only one fourth-quarter comeback for the Chicago Bears.
Lastly, the Steelers made the playoffs last season despite starting three different quarterbacks. If Wilson can be 70% as good for Pittsburgh as he was for the Seattle Seahawks from 2012-21, the Steelers will sneak into the playoffs again in 2024.
Pick: Russell Wilson will be starting for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1
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Seattle Seahawks
- Geno Smith (-700)
- Sam Howell (+450)
Of all the teams we've discussed, "QB Geno Smith starting Week 1 for the Seahawks" feels like the biggest lock. Smith has made two straight Pro Bowls, won NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2022, and led the NFL with five game-winning drives last season. In comparison, former Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell led the league in interceptions (21) and sacks (65).
Pick: Geno Smith will be starting for the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1
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