Dallas Mavericks At Minnesota Timberwolves Game 2 Best Bets: 2024 NBA Playoffs

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To my chagrin, the Dallas Mavericks (1-0) upset the Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1) 108-105 as +5 road underdogs in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Wednesday. I foolishly laid the points with the T-Wolves and Mavs All-Stars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving peed in my cornflakes, so to speak, combining for 63 points. 

Timberwolves All-Stars Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns struggling offensively was the difference in Game 1. Towns scored 16 points on 6-of-20 and 22.2% from three (2-of-9). Ant-Man grabbed 11 rebounds, threw eight assists, and stole two balls. However, Edwards scored just 19 points on 37.5% shooting (6-for-16). 

Since KAT is one of the best shooting bigs in the NBA and no one on the Mavericks should be able to guard Ant-Man, I’m counting on bounce-back games from both Friday. On top of that, Minnesota's NBA-best defense will do a better job containing Luka and Kyrie in Game 2. 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 2 Bet Slip

The odds are the best available as of 3 p.m. ET Friday, May 24th

  • 1.15 units (u) on TIMBERWOLVES -5.5 (-115) at DraftKings.
  • 0.25u on Minnesota PF Naz Reid OVER 10.5 Points (+100) at FanDuel.
  • 0.28u on Timberwolves forward Kyle Anderson OVER 8.5 "Player Combo" (-110) at DraftKings.

Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 over Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs won three of the "four factors": Effective field goal, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding rate, and free-throw attempt rates. Dallas shot 59.7% on 2-balls and 24.0% on threes (6-of-25). The T-Wolves were 36.0% from inside the arc and 36.7% behind it (18-of-49). 

Minnesota's 3-point volume in Game 1 was an outlier, but not the conversion rate. The Timberwolves hit 38.2% of their threes at home in 2023-24, including the regular season and playoffs. They led the NBA in defensive rate and 2-point percentage. So, I expect the T-Wolves to tighten up their mid-range defense in Game 2. 

Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving shoots a fadeaway over Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards during Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center in Minnesota. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving shoots a fadeaway over Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards during Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center in Minnesota. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Also, I mistakenly overlooked Minnesota’s seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals. Yet, even though it’s the conference finals, Game 1 was a "let-down" spot for the Timberwolves after they upset the reigning NBA champion on the road. 

Finally, the higher seed usually evens the series after losing Game 1 at home, which bodes well for the T-Wolves. Granted, they lost Games 3-4 in Minnesota to the Nuggets last round. But, since 2021, home favorites are 9-2 overall and 8-3 vs. the spread in Game 2 with an average line of -7 and a +13.8 scoring margin.

Timberwolves PF Naz Reid OVER 10.5 points 

Like most backups, Reid shoots better at home. His true shooting rate, which combines 2- and 3-point and free-throw percentages, improved to 62.7% at home from 56.5% on the road. The 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year scored 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting in Game 1. 

Timberwolves PF Naz Reid defends Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic Wednesday in the Western Conference of the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Target Center in Minnesota. (Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports)

Minnesota Timberwolves PF Naz Reid defends Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic Wednesday in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. (Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports)

Reid might get more playing time in Game 2. He is quicker laterally than T-Wolves C Rudy Gobert. Luka and Kyrie successfully attacked Gobert when he played "drop coverage" in pick-and-roll defense. If the Mavs are cooking in the mid-range again Friday, the Timberwolves will need Reid’s floor spacing so that Edwards can get into the paint more easily. 

Minnesota forward Kyle Anderson OVER 8.5 points + rebounds + assists (‘Player Combo’)

Starting T-Wolves PG Mike Conley has been playing through a foot injury for most of the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Conley is "questionable" for Game 2. With that in mind, Anderson should also get more playing time Friday. Plus, Anderson is 6-foot-9 with a long wingspan and has a better body type than Conley to defend Dončić.

Furthermore, the same "role players perform better at home" logic for Reid applies to Anderson for Game 2. Slo Mo’s offensive rating goes from 109 on the road to 120 at home. His true shooting rate climbs to 55.6% at home from 47.4% on the road.  

Anderson averaged 5.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in four games vs. Dallas in the regular season. He put up 11 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists in Game 1. The Mavs left Anderson wide open when he had the ball. Slo Mo could go Over his 8.5 "Player Combo" on points alone if left wide open and allowed to dribble into easy 10-footers. 

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