Cy Young Candidates Square Off, But Play The Over

Diamondbacks vs. Braves, 12:20 ET

I wrote Wednesday about how I had a very nice 2-0 day on Tuesday. Well, the gambling gods giveth and they taketh away. I dropped both of my plays that I wrote about yesterday. Neither one of them were particularly close. That doesn't mean that I don't stand by the plays, it just means they didn't work out. So essentially I'm still on this 1-1 run that I've been on, but I want to get some more winners rolling. Let's start with an early play in the Diamondbacks vs. Braves.

The Diamondbacks are my favorite team this season. They have a bit of everything going for them. They have the likely Rookie of the Year in Corbin Carroll, they have a potential Cy Young winner in Zac Gallen, and they have been able to fill in the rest of the roster with very talented players that are hitting well and fielding well too. Now, the Diamondbacks look to get a sweep against the NL leading Braves. In the first game, they were able to win a scoring fest. In the second it was a bit more of a normal game with a 5-3 final. Now they send out Gallen to try and close the deal on this game. Gallen has been great this season, but most of that success has been at home. He has a 1.48 home ERA and a 5.11 road ERA. Yeesh. In three of his past four road starts, he has allowed at least three earned runs. There are some Braves with success against Gallen, specifically Ozzie Ablies.

The Diamondbacks go for a sweep against the Braves behind Zac Gallen. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

The Braves are the best team in the National League and potentially even the best team in all of the Major Leagues. Right now, though, they are hitting a bit of a speed bump as they have lost the past four games. Losing to the Diamondbacks is respectful though. Losing two of three to the White Sox is a little less explainable. Oddly enough, the Braves are actually worse at home than they are on the road. It isn't quite as drastic as it was at the beginning of the season. While the Diamondbacks may take home some awards, so will the Braves. Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to win the MVP and Spencer Strider is looking to make a claim on the Cy Young award as well. Strider actually starts today and can make a claim for the award against the other frontrunner, Gallen. Strider is 11-3 with a 3.66 ERA on the season. He also has a 4.30 home ERA and a lower road ERA. Some of that ha been inflated by two of his four most recent starts at home where he allowed eight and five earned runs. The Braves have won eight of his past nine starts.

To be honest, the line is a bit disrespectful to Gallen that he is a +170 underdog today. It has to reflect a bit of the fact that he has been pretty bad on the road this season. I think there is value there only because the Diamondbacks are playing better, and Strider does struggle at home. I think the best bet here though is to take the over 4.5 runs through five innings. Both starters are in sub-optimal spots, take the over.

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