Curtains: Padres Will Close Out Dodgers In NLDS Game 4
Game 4 of the National League Division Series is a win-or-go-home game for the Los Angeles Dodgers (1-2) when they visit the San Diego Padres (2-1) at Petco Park Saturday.
The Padres held off the Dodgers for a 2-1 Game 3 win. Padres CF Trent Grisham's solo home run in the bottom of the 5th inning was the difference in the game.
San Diego LHP Blake Snell got a win after pitching 5 1/3 innings, allowing just 1 ER on 5 H, 2 BB, and 6 K. Padres closer Josh Hader — whom it acquired in August — slammed the door, striking out two Dodgers in the top of the 9th.
The bottom line for this handicap there's a wide gap between the Dodgers and 26 of the other ball clubs in MLB. LA crushed everyone in the regular season, as per usual, but is meeting an equal in the NLDS. In fact, the Padres are the better team.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
The starting pitching matchup skews in favor of the Padres. They are starting a legitimate playoff rotation guy in RHP Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA).
Whereas the Dodgers give LHP Tyler Anderson (15-5, 2.57 ERA) the ball Saturday. Anderson wouldn't be in LA's rotation if Walker Buehler was healthy and Trevor Bauer wasn't suspended.
Don't get me wrong, Anderson has good stuff. But, he's a reclamation project for the Dodgers after never living up to 1st-round potential while pitching for the Rockies and Giants.
Padres Joe Musgrove gestures to his ear as he walks back to the dugout after closing out the 6th inning against the Mets in Game 3 of the NLWCS at Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
San Diego is counting on a quality start from Musgrove, which he already gave the Padres in a National League Wild Card Series-clinching win over the Mets in NY.
The essence of pitching is walks and strikeouts. Musgrove has a better K-BB% (19.2-14.7%) than Anderson this season and that explains his better xFIP (4.11-3.38).
Also, most people don't think this will be the end of LA's season, giving us a "contrarian" angle. Per VSIN, roughly 60% of the bets at DraftKings Sportsbook are on the Dodgers.
Finally, maybe I'm being stubborn but San Diego was my preseason pick to win the World Series and I'm riding out. This is a coin-flip game between two evenly-matched teams but the Padres are hotter.
BET: Padres (+105) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to -115
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET.