Creighton Will Crush Alabama Saturday In College Hoops
The No. 8 Creighton Bluejays (8-1) close out non-conference play Saturday by hosting the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-3) for a 8 p.m. ET tip-off at the CHI Health Center Omaha. Alabama is the bigger program but Creighton is underrated like the rest of the Big East.
Creighton opened as 5.5-point favorites and is -7.5 across the board. This is despite the Crimson Tide ranking higher by Ken Pom and more than 75% of the money being on Alabama, according to Pregame.com.
Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears and Ohio State Buckeyes guard Dale Bonner battle for a lose ball at Raider Arena in Niceville, Florida. (Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)
I'm going to side with the betting market on this one. Somebody smart is betting the Bluejays. That's the only explanation for the line moving in Creighton's direction even though more cash is on 'Bama. The public isn't betting the Bluejays on an NFL Saturday.
Regardless, there are basketball reasons for betting Creighton. It's the bigger team with more continuity and experience. Per Sports Reference, 64.8% of the Bluejays scoring returned from last year compared to just 26.7% for the Crimson Tide.
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Both teams like to chuck 3-pointers but Creighton is better at defending threes. According to Ken Pom, the Bluejays have the best defensive 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and rank 60th in defensive 3-point shooting. Alabama is 160th in defensive 3PAr and 204th in defensive 3-point shooting.
Creighton Bluejays center Ryan Kalkbrenner stuffs Cornhuskers forward Josiah Allick at the basket in Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska. (Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the key to Creighton's 3-point defense is Bluejays senior big Ryan Kalkbrenner. Creighton is able to extend its perimeter defense because Kalkbrenner is 7-foot-1 and an elite rim protector. Plus, the Bluejays also don't gamble on defense.
Finally, Creighton's size and strategy nerfs two of Alabama's biggest strengths. The Crimson Tide are 22nd nationally in FT/FGA rate and 28th in offensive rebounding rate, according to Ken Pom. The Bluejays are 9th in defensive rebounding and 1st in defensive FT/FGA rate.