Couple Of Live 'Dogs Make Up Monday's MLB Best Bets
Despite finishing the 1st week of MLB action 5-5, the vig cost me nearly a unit. My two straight winning days this weekend gives me hope I'm heading in the right direction.
Let's start the week off with a 3rd consecutive winning day by betting these games ...
Toronto Blue Jays (1-2) at Kansas City Royals (0-3), 7:40 p.m. ET
Gimme KC starting RHP Brady Singer over Toronto starter Jose Berrios. Berrios is held in higher regard because he was an All-Star 2018-19 and the Blue Jays signed him to a huge extension in 2021.
However, Berrios was terrible last season. He had the worst ERA among qualified starters (5.23 ERA) and tied for the worst home run per nine inning rate.
According to Statcast, Berrios graded in the 15th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected ERA over expected wOBA, exit velocity and chase rate.
Berrios reacts after striking out Royals OF Edward Olivares at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada. (Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
Three of Berrios' five pitches have a plus-run value (RV), according to Statcast. His fastball-changeup combination is one of the worst in MLB. There of Singer's four pitches have a minus-RV and has much better pitching peripherals.
Singer had a 2.76 home ERA in 2022 and Berrios had a 6.36 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP on the road. Berrios has pitched often in Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City while pitching for the Minnesota Twins.
Singer throws a pitch during the 1st inning vs. the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. (George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
The Twins were 4-6 straight up (SU) vs. the Royals in KC from 2016-21 when Berrios was the starter. Berrios has a career 4.81 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 41/22 K/BB rate in Kauffman Stadium.
Per VSIN, more than 80% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on the Blue Jays as of midnight Monday. Toronto opened as -145 favorites but is now -140, which is suspicious, right?
MLB Best Bet #1: Royals (+120) moneyline at DraftKings
The Kansas City Royals' odds vs. the Toronto Blue Jays from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, April 3rd at 12:45 a.m. ET.
Los Angeles Angels (2-1) at Seattle Mariners (1-3), 9:40 p.m. ET
Even though the Angels were a joke last season (and pretty much in the entire Mike Trout era), they played well in Seattle. In 2022, the Angels were 6-3 SU in Seattle with a +44.3% return on investment.
One of those six LAA victories were with Monday's starter — LHP Reid Detmers — on the bump. Detmers was 2-0 SU in two starts vs. the Mariners last season with 2 ER over 10 IP and a 10/3 K/BB rate.
Detmers throws a pitch vs. the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Detmers is the No. 10 overall pick from the 2020 MLB Draft. He threw a no-hitter last year as a rookie vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Three of Detmers' four pitches have a minus-RV, according to Statcast.
Seattle's starter Monday — RHP George Kirby — is no slouch either. Kirby went 1-1 SU vs. the Angels last season with 5 ERs allowed over 11 2/3 IP and a 15/2 K/BB rate in two starts.
I don't want to overreact to their 1st series vs. the crappy Athletics. But, the top of LAA's order looks good: LF Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani and Trout. If Ohtani and Trout are healthy then the Angels should have a top-10 lineup.
Through their 1st three games, Ward is 7-for-14 with 4 RBI, Ohtani is 4-for-12 with 3 RBI and Trout 4-for-11 with 2 RBI and they each have 1 home run.
Seattle's bullpen figures to be a lot better than LAA's. Yet I'm not betting the "1st Five-Inning" line because I like Kirby and I want to give the Angels a chance to run down the Mariners late if need be.