Cougars Will Knock Out Boilermakers

Purdue vs. Houston, 10:09 ET

By the end of this game, the Elite Eight will be set. Then we start breaking down those games and getting to the Final Four next week. I'm going to make it a goal to have a bet on the remaining seven games and share that with everyone here. Before we get to that point, though, let's lock in a play on this Sweet 16 matchup that has a ton of potential to be an exciting game. This one is between Purdue and Houston, two of the better looking teams in the country this season.

Purdue has had a unique season in that they were kind of discounted to start the year after losing Zach Edey. Then they played really well and made some heads start to turn. They have done a very nice job of reinventing themselves this year and finding a way to balance their offense without one guy taking up a ton of space and having to get touches. They still have height, they still have outside shooting, and they still have a good defense, that didn't just disappear with the NBA Draft last year. Perhaps we should've been more confident in their team coming into this year, but either way it doesn't really matter. All that matters is where they are now. They put together a nice season, did well in the Big 10 Tournament (until they were blasted by Michigan), and have won twice in the NCAA Tournament already. Those two losses though were not against exactly impressive teams. They beat High Point… who a lot of people thought would win the game outright, but Purdue never struggled. They also beat McNeese. McNeese never did anything to make Purdue really sweat. If you can't get to a team early as an underdog, it is hard to overcome that lead and make the opponent sweat. Purdue turned the ball over a ton in this game and still won by 14. 

Houston has been one of the best teams in the country not only this season, but for the past few years. The problem is that they typically choke because they really don't have a key scorer that can take over the offense when needed. That isn't to say their offense is bad, I actually like it and think they are efficient. Their defense is really the strength of this team and they try to force their opponent into mistakes with their pressure. Houston has lost just four times this season. They dropped games to Auburn, Alabama, and San Diego State early in the year. San Diego State isn't terrible, but they should've won that game. Texas Tech was the only other time they fell to an opponent this year. The total margin of victory for their opponents: 14 points. In round one of the NCAA Tournament, they won by 38 points, handling their business very well. In round 2, it was a bit scarier with them beating Gonzaga by just five points. Houston never trailed in the game, but they also couldn't ever really fully shut the door on Gonzaga either. I was wrong about them in this game as I took them at -5.5, so we lost on the hook.

I want to be really clear, Purdue is a good basketball team, and they have a good coach. However, Houston is better and should win this game. The line is getting a bit high for my liking as I think the Boilermakers could keep it close, but I do think there is still some room here. Purdue hasn't been challenged at all by their first two opponents, and Houston has had a bit of a scare. Not only that, but Purdue hasn't played very well against good competition lately. Back Houston -7.5 in this one. 

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