Continue To Ride Blake Snell's Dominance

Diamondbacks vs. Giants, 3:45 ET

The National League West has been one of the more intriguing divisions this season. Sure, the Dodgers are still top dogs and look likely to take the division once again, but you've had three other teams in the league looking like potential playoff candidates. The Padres are on their way, but like one of the teams in this game, they still need to work to secure their spot. That team would be the Diamondbacks who take on the Giants, a team that has faded from the race, but is still putting together a respectable campaign.

If you read people who follow the Diamondbacks closely, it appears there was no panic about the team even as they looked like an average club around the All-Star Break. For the most part, everyone just said "Oh, they will be fine. They are just injured right now." The thing is, even when teams get healthy, it is hard to claim that everything will work out as soon as players return. You have guys searching for timing, others looking to get a feel for pitching to Major League hitters again, and a number of other variables. The team is now back to having injury concerns, but it is possible they won't miss anyone too long. Most impressive about the club has been the hitting for the season. The team is batting .263 for the year with 763 runs scored - 165 more than their opponent in today's game. Their pitching has been a large part of the concern this season, but they recently got back today's starter, Merrill Kelly. Since returning, he has struggled significantly, allowing 16 earned runs in 21 innings. He has also allowed six home runs in that stretch. Having watched him over the years, I do think this is a matter of him trying to figure it out rather than a true reflection of how he will pitch. In any case, the Diamondbacks could certainly use him regaining his form quickly. Giants hitters are hitting just .230 off of Kelly overall with none of the hitters being overly effective against him. 

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 31: Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) exits the game in the fourth inning during a regular season game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers on March 31, 2023, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Giants are not going to make the playoffs, and that was probably the expected outcome of this season all along. The team didn't ever have the hitting necessary and their pitching has big names, but dealt with injuries and rehab a lot of the season. Looking at their season schedule, it was interesting to see that the trend of small streaks continued this year. There wasn't a huge disaster of a losing-streak, and no ridiculously long winning streak either. Sure, they have lost five or six games in a row a couple of times, but they also have a winning streak or two of that length. Currently, they've lost four of their past five games, and six of their past seven. You have to expect that they will break out of that rather quickly. I mentioned Kelly struggling upon his return from injury. Blake Snell wasn't injured, but came into the season after a break because of extended contract issues. Then he did get injured. Since he settled in, though, he has been great, allowing just nine earned runs over his past 62.1 innings. When he was struggling earlier in the year, he faced Arizona and they were able to knock him around a bit with five earned runs over 4.2 innings. 

We have some intriguing things at work here: the Diamondbacks are the better team and the hotter team. They have a pitcher on the mound who is capable of holding any team down, but struggling right now. On the other side, the Giants are not hitting currently, but Snell is out of this world at the moment and cooling off even the hottest hitters. That leads me to believe this is going to be an under. Even if Kelly allows four runs in the game, Snell really shouldn't allow more than a couple. I'll back under 3.5 total runs for the Diamondbacks - Snell is too hard to go against right now. If the juice is too high for you (-135 or higher is typically my cutoff) you can take a shot at the under 7.5. 

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