Continue Fading Overrated Broncos In Week 14 With The Chargers
The Denver Broncos (6-6) are fugazi and one of the luckiest teams in the NFL. Denver visits one of the unluckiest teams in the league, the Los Angeles Chargers (5-7), in Week 14. In fact, according to TeamRankings.com, the Broncos are the fourth-luckiest team in the NFL and the Chargers are 29th.
Yet the market is treating Denver like its a good team. Per Pregame.com and Pro Football Focus (PFF), more than 70 percent of the bets are on the Broncos as of Saturday afternoon. The lopsided action has moved the Chargers from -3 to -2.5 favorites for Sunday.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert rips a ball over the middle vs. the Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
Last week, I faded Denver because I knew its 5-game winning streak from Weeks 7 to 12 was dumb-luck. Over that span, the Broncos were +13 in turnover margin, which was due for regression. That came last week when the Houston Texans beat Denver 22-17 and won the turnover battle 3-2.
I'm going back to the well and fading the Broncos because this is a rare game where the Chargers have the better defense. Denver's defense is worse by yards per play (YPP), success rate, and points allowed.
Furthermore, LAC's defense has shown up this season against quality competition. They held the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens to 20 points each and the Broncos' offense leagues below those teams.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark's NFL Week 14 Best Bets with Dan Zaksheske and Scott Martin
Plus, when I use some transitive property handicapping, the Chargers appears to be the right side. They clobbered the New York Jets 27-6 on the road with quarterback Zach Wilson under center. The Broncos lost to Jets and Wilson 31-21 at home.
Los Angeles beat the Minnesota Vikings with quarterback Kirk Cousins 28-24 on the road. Denver eked past Minnesota 21-20 with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs at home. The Chargers lost to the Miami Dolphins 36-34 whereas the Broncos lost by 50!!
Dolphins DE Emmanuel Ogbah celebrates a sack on Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Jim Rassol/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Also, the outcome of both teams' Week 13 games are misleading. Sure, the Chargers only beat the New England Patriots 6-0, barely covering as -5.5 favorites. But, LAC went with a stale game-plan because they knew the Patriots couldn't score.
Denver on the other hand lost a nail-biter to the Texans after Broncos QB Russell Wilson threw a game-ending interception in Houston's end zone at the end of the game. However, the Broncos lost time of possession and YPP (5.6-4.8) and the Texans left a lot of points on the field.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is profitable in these spots. Herbert is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread as a home favorite vs. AFC West opponents. Granted, those opponents are the Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. LOL at LAC being favorites vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
Finally, the Chargers can win by margin in the high-leverage situations. They are fourth in net 3rd-down conversion rate and fifth in red-zone scoring differential. While the Broncos are 15th on 3rd-down and 25th in the red zone.