Consider These NBA Sunday Bets Since The NFL Week 17 Evening Games Are Trash
I haven't done any written NBA handicaps for OutKick since Wednesday because I felt my luck turning after a 4-1 day on Christmas. There was some paralysis by analysis and I was overthinking my bets. Instead, I gave out picks from Thursday-Saturday on Twitter/X, @Geoffery_Clark.
Furthermore, I've been consumed with gambling on the NFL. However, all of my NFL Week 17 bets Sunday are in the 1 p.m. ET window so I'm looking to add some action to my evening. With that in mind, I'm firing out two ...
NBA Sunday Best Bets
OVER 234 in Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 p.m. ET
Betcris and Bookmaker are taking action for a 236 total in this game. Those are the sharpest shop in the world known for booking the largest sports bets. Usually, legal U.S. sportsbooks mirror these oddsmakers so this total could close at 236 or higher.
We could be getting a good price on the total because both teams went well Under the totals in their previous games. Brooklyn’s Under in 110-104 loss at the Washington Wizards Thursday snapped a 4-game Over streak.
Mar 14, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) drives between Brooklyn Nets center Nic Claxton (33) and guard Spencer Dinwiddie (26) during the second half at Paycom Center. Oklahoma City won 121-107. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
The same goes for the Thunder. Their Under in a 119-93 win at the Denver Nuggets Thursday broke a 4-game Over streak. Plus, the Thunder has gone Over the total in seven of their last 10 games.
Also, Brooklyn is 6th in offensive rebounding rate and OKC gives up the 4th-worst 2nd-chance points per game (PPG). The Thunder are 6th in offensive rating and the Nets are 23rd in defensive rating.
Finally, Oklahoma City averages 7.1 more PPG at home and Brooklyn allows 7.1 more PPG on the road. The Nets shoot better in away games too. Their 3-point shooting climbs from 37.0% at home to 40.9% on the road.
My prediction: Thunder 125, Nets 116
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies (-110), 8 p.m. ET
Sacramento’s 18-12 record is misleading. The Kings have a 14.4 expected win total based on net efficiency, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Their +3.6 win differential is the highest in the NBA.
The Kings are 21st in defensive rating and the Grizzlies have an offensive identity now that Ja Morant is playing. Morant’s dribble penetration gets wide-open looks for teammates.
Also, Sactown has one of the worst defensive frontcourts in the NBA. Ja attacks the rim relentlessly and takes a bunch of short-mid-range floaters. The Kings are 24th in defensive field goal rate both at the rim and vs. short-mid-range attempts, per CTG.
Grizzlies PG Ja Morant handles the ball against the Sacramento Kings in an NBA game at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
This is Memphis’s 2nd home game since Morant made his season debut. The Grizzlies won the 1st, 116-103, vs. the Indiana Pacers Dec. 21st. Sacramento plays similarly to Indiana. Both score a lot of points but suck at defense. The Grizzlies hit 16-of-35 from behind the arc vs. the Pacers earlier this month.
Memphis’s defense matches up well with Sacramento. Grizzlies big, and 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr. is the perfect guy to defend Kings big Domantas Sabonis.
Jackson’s length and athleticism is going to be for Sabonis to maneuver around. Memphis guard, and 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Marcus Smart can make things difficult on Sacramento PG De’Aaron Fox.