Commanders Wont Win But Can Cover

Commanders vs. Eagles, 3:00 ET

I've already talked about a player prop and if you haven't read that, I think you should. Not only because I love sharing plays with you guys, but I really think that we have a chance for a big day today. There are a number of things to be excited about with this Sunday slate because two of the four remaining teams will be playing for the Super Bowl! This one will either give us a rookie quarterback, or a guy looking to try and get his revenge from the first time in the game. Let's see how we should bet on this game between the Commanders and the Eagles.

The Commanders have shocked the world by getting to the NFC Championship. Maybe we shouldn't be shocked considering Jaylen Daniels and his squad have been doing this all season and continue to roll. He led the team to 12 wins, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised about how well they've played. The Commanders had some impressive wins in the regular season, beating the Bengals on the road, and the Eagles at home. However with closer examination, they really only won one game over a playoff team in the regular season. They lost to the Buccaneers, Eagles, and Ravens. In the playoffs, they've already beaten the Buccaneers, winning on a field goal doink. Then they went on the road last week and had a very convincing win over the Lions. Detroit, one of the best teams this season was injured most of the season and not full strength for this one. That allowed the Washington offense to accumulate almost 500 yards. They had three rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns. The Commanders only had to punt the ball once in the game, the only other time was a turnover on downs, and they had a missed field goal. The defense stepped up and forced three interceptions and a fumble. You can't count on that all the time. Their rushing defense has been terrible most of the season, and they allowed 201 rushing yards to the Lions. That's not a good sign for this one.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 15: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles greets A.J. Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles on field prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lincoln Financial Field on December 15, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

The Eagles have looked great for most of this season and continue to have very little flaws in their roster. This is a tough challenge for their team and different than they've had to deal with in the first two games of the postseason as Daniels is a running quarterback as well, which adds a bit of intrigue to the game. The Eagles didn't look great against Green Bay, but they did win by 12 points, so it wasn't a poor performance either. It was just kind of average. Then last week, they won the game 28-22 over the Rams, but if you take away the Saquon Barkley runs, they are missing two touchdowns. I'm high on Barkley having another good game, but I think the Commanders offense can at least produce at the same rate as the Rams. The Eagles defense is one of the best in the league, but that doesn't mean they can't be exploited. In the two games against Washington this year, they won the first, 26-18. Barkley was a monster in that game. They lost to Washington in Week 16 on the road, losing 36-33. This was a great start for the Eagles offense, scoring 21 first quarter. The end was ugly as they allowed 22 points in the fourth quarter.

So… we had one high-scoring game, one low-scoring game, one win for the Eagles, one win for the Commanders. That doesn't help us much for betting here. The weather should be substantially better in this game than the one last week against Washington. The standard idea is to take the points in divisional battles. It doesn't always work, but I've been wrong about the Commanders in both games. I think Philadelphia wins, but I do think the Commanders can cover this game. I'll back Washington +6 but I have also bet a ton on Barkley having a great game, and these aren't necessarily correlated. 

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