'Comeback Season': Two Picks For The 2024 NBA Playoffs Game 3s Saturday

Because I handicapped the 2024 NBA Playoffs like a softie Friday, I got waxed. I lost all four of my bets given out on this great website. Instead of betting sides, like usual, I bet two totals and two player props Friday. In my defense, one of my player props lost by a half-point, and both total bets were more "unlucky breaks than" "bad reads". 

The Knicks-Pacers trended Over for three quarters, and then 42 points were scored in the fourth. Less than 50 points were scored in three Nuggets-Timberwolves quarters in Game 3, but my Under was lost due to a 62-point third quarter. I got a half-unit (u) back by adding a Knicks +7.5 bet via X (Twitter), which cashed when New York lost a 110-106 nail-biter to Indiana. 

It sucks, but I'm just chalking it up to "one of those days". This is a speed bump in an otherwise profitable 2024 NBA Playoffs. If nothing else, I'm confident and I'll get this money back by the end of the weekend. Speaking of which, let's figure out where the value is on Saturday's card. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Bet Slip For May 11th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-2), 3:30 p.m. ET

The Mavericks evened the series by crushing the Thunder 119-110 in Game 2 Thursday. Dallas survived an off-night from Kyrie Irving because PF P.J. Washington had the game of his life. Kyrie scored 9 points on 2-for-8 shooting but dished a game-high 11 assists, and Washington scored 29 points. Of course, Luka Dončić balled out too, chipping in 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists. 

Technically, the Thunder are winning in all "four factors" in this series: Rebounding, effective field goal shooting (eFG%), which blends 2- and 3-point shooting, turnover rate, and free-throw differential. But, the Mavs won all "four factors" Thursday, and this series is tied, so I’m calling this an "even matched" series heading to Dallas for Game 3. 

With that in mind, I’ll take the Mavericks -3 (up to -4) because the Thunder is much better at home. OKC is 33-8 straight up (SU) at home with a +12.9 scoring margin and 24-17 SU with a +1.8 scoring margin on the road. The Thunder rely on 2023-24 NBA MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 30+ points and a bunch of role players to hit threes. 

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Dončić drives toward the paint on Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 2 in the second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)

That said, role players and young players perform better at home. Well, Game 3 is in Dallas and Oklahoma City has one of the youngest rosters in the NBA. If Luka and Kyrie play their games and Washington or Mavericks SG Tim Hardaway Jr. hits some threes, Dallas is in good shape. Dončić averages 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists. Irving adds 25.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. 

Hardaway missed the final four games of Dallas’s first-round series vs. the Los Angeles Clippers and returned for this series. After scoring just 2 points in the series opener, Hardaway scored 17 points in Game 2. The trade for Washington in February was a nice pick up for Dallas. He has a +6.3 net rating in non-garbage time, per CleaningTheGlass.com. 

Between Game 3 being in Dallas and Luka and Kyrie, the Mavericks -2 are the right side Saturday. Take the Mavs -2 ASAP. Dončić is "questionable" on the NBA's 9:30 a.m. ET injury report Saturday. He has been on the injury report all year but usually plays. When Dallas clears Luka for Game 3, the Mavericks will close as -3 favorites or greater. 

BET 1.12u on the Mavericks -2 (-112) at DraftKings. Dallas is playable up to -3.5 if Luka plays. 

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Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (+8.5), 8 p.m. ET

I don’t trust Boston. Everyone talks about the Celtics like they’ve won a title or something because they won 64 games during the regular season. But, they don’t hang banners in Boston for 64-win seasons. The Celtics are out-performing the Cavaliers in three of the "four factors" through the first two games of this series. 

Yet, despite all of Boston’s 3-point shooters, the Cavs have a higher eFG%. This series goes to Cleveland for Games 3-4 and, like I said above, role players shoot better at home. Plus, Cavaliers All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell is scoring a series-best 31.0 points per game (PPG). Mitchell is shooting 50.0% from inside and outside the arc in this series. 

Celtics All-Star forward Jayson Tatum is putting up a dud. Tatum is averaging 21.5 PPG (down from 26.9 PPG during the regular season) on 41.7% eFG% (38.9% field goal shooting and 20.0% from three). I would've told you Tatum was the best player on either team before this series began, but Mitchell outplayed him in Boston. 

Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell attacks Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum and C Al Horford off the dribble in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden in Boston. (Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, the loss of C Kristaps Porzingis means more to the Celtics than C Jarrett Allen's loss to the Cavaliers. Boston doesn't have many bigs and KP's absence forces 37-year-old C Al Horford into the starting 5. Horford cannot keep up with Cavs PF Evan Mobley and Porzingis is the Celtics' difference-making interior presence. 

Per Basketball Reference, Mobley has the second-best average "Game Score" in this series, behind Mitchell. Mobley's 143 offensive rating is the highest among guys in this series with at least 50 minutes played. I'm counting on better 3-point shooting from the Cavs' role players in Game 3 since they are the home team. 

Finally, Cleveland backup SG Caris LeVert lit up the Celtics in Game 2. LeVert scored 21 points on 9-of-17 shooting and went 0-for-3 from 3-point land. All the Cavaliers need is two of LeVert, Mobley, PG Darius Garland, and SF Max Strus to help Mitchell and Mobley out and they should cover or win Game 3 outright. 

BET 1.12u on the Cavaliers +8.5 (-112) at FanDuel. Cleveland is bet-able down to +7. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.